Driving the lack of betting opportunities is a lack of turnovers in general. Turnovers in the NFL have been declining for well over twenty years now. Through week six, teams have averaged just 1.5 turnovers per game, the lowest level going back to 1989. See chart below:
The full season results show the same pattern:
It is interesting that fumbles show a more steady decline than interceptions. With rule changes that have favored the passing game, I would have expected a bigger decline in interceptions, not fumbles.
Week 7 Picks
There are two picks against the spread this week: Jets to cover against the Patriots tonight, and the Steelers to cover against the Texans. We use the Kelly criterion to determine bet size. Here are the details (more background here):
|Jets @ Patriots||3||14||11||1.8||Jets||54.2%||3.8%|
|Texans @ Steelers||14||6||-8||-1.3||Steelers||53.0%||1.4%|
So, for the first week, we will be wagering 5.2% of our bankroll.