Excitement, Comebacks, and MVP's
The top dropdown menu offers three options for sorting games:
- Excitement: This option will sort games by top value of the excitement index. The excitement index measures how far the win probability graph "travels" over the course of the game.
- Comeback: This option will sort games by the comeback factor, which is the winning team's odds at their lowest point in the game. My win probability estimates only go down to the 4th decimal place, so any winning teams with a win probability of < 0.0001 show up with a comeback factor of "9999+".
- MVP Performance: Win probability added (WPA) can be apportioned at the player level (see here for more information). I designate the player with the highest WPA in a game as the MVP. This option will sort games by the top MVP performance in terms of total WPA.
There are a variety of filtering options: by season, by team, by regular season/playoffs (or both), and by date.
A Sampling of Top Games
- The most exciting game of the past two seasons was a triple overtime match between the Pelicans and the Bulls that took place on December 2, 2013 (game | finder link)
- The most exciting games of this season's playoffs. Top game was Game 1 of the Trailblazers-Rockets series.
- Top comebacks of the past two seasons. There have been five games that have "broke" the win probability model, with a comeback factor greater than the precision I'm willing to go down to. In other words, these five games registered a win probability of literally zero for the ultimately victorious team.
- The biggest comebacks in games involving the Miami Heat. Not surprisingly, Game 6 of the 2013 finals tops the list. After Lebron's missed three pointer with 0:23 left and the Heat down by five (but before Mike Miller's offensive rebound), the Heat's chances were just 0.5%, or 199 to 1.
- Top MVP Performances of the past two seasons. Nicholas Batum tops the list with a +123% in win probability added in a December 1, 2012 matchup against the Cavs (+85% came on this buzzer beating three in the 2nd overtime).
- Top games of the past week (May 18-May 24).