There is no shortage of NFL power rankings from which to choose these days, of varying quality and usefulness. One unique feature of the rankings I publish here is that they can actually be updated daily. Standard stat-based NFL rankings need to wait for new data to be updated, with most of that data coming on Sunday. Since my rankings are based on the point spreads, which update continuously (much in the same way that stock prices do), I can run these daily in an effort to take the pulse of the market.
The purpose of this post is to announce that the daily rankings for the NFL are now up and running. A few notes on the ranking table:
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Sunday, September 23, 2012
As promised yesterday, here are the NFL Team Rankings as of Week 3 (with lines updated as of Sunday morning). For those of you new to this site, these rankings are an attempt to reverse engineer an implied power ranking from the Vegas point spreads. If you're gambling on the NFL, think of this as competitive intelligence, in that your competition is Vegas, the sportsbooks, and the combined wisdom of the betting public. The goal of this site is to provide greater clarity on what may be driving how point spreads (and over/unders) for each game are being set.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Waaaaaaay back in May, I published my first look at the 2012 Betting Market rankings for the NFL, using opening lines courtesy of Cantor Gaming. With Opening Sunday nearly upon us, I can take an updated look at the rankings using the latest betting lines for both Week 1 and Week 2. The rankings published back in May were, in effect, just reverse engineered rankings according to the experts at Cantor Gaming. I can now see where the actual money is flowing to get an updated view.
See the Methodology page for a simplified example of my ranking approach. For more detail, you can take a look at my first post on this topic at Advanced NFL Stats Community.
As usual, my source for betting information is Killer Sports. They have NFL lines updated for both Week 1 and Week 2 of the season. Since my methodology usually needs at least three weeks of data to get a proper set of rankings, I am using the Cantor lines from my May post to "fill in the gaps", so to speak (more technically, my ranking is a weighted linear regression, with weeks 1 and 2 -the real money- weighted at 1, and weeks 3-16 -the Cantor lines- weighted much smaller at 0.0000001).