Sunday, April 1, 2012

NBA Team Rankings - March 31, 2012

Spurs cowboy crockett
They jingle jangle
Here are the NBA Team Rankings as of March 31, 2012. These rankings use the Vegas point spreads from recent games to derive an implied measure of team strength (Generic Points Favored, or GPF).  By combining the point spread information with the betting over/unders, I can also decompose team strength into its offensive and defensive components (oGPF and dGPF). For more detail, see the Methodology page.

For the first time this season, the Bulls have fallen out of the top 3, having been replaced by the Spurs.  I'm somewhat surprised that the Bulls haven't fallen further, given they've been without Derrick Rose for 10 straight games now.

The Knicks' ups and downs continue.  Having reached the top 5 last week, they've since fallen to #10, and will most likely fall further with both Amare Stoudamire and Jeremy Lin probably out for the season.  Follow the Knicks' progress on the Ticker.


The Rankings (glossary below)

Rank Team LstWk GPF oGPF dGPF GOU W-L GWP
1  MIA 1 8.0 3.5 6 4.5 4 194 18 37-13 3 0.77
2  OKC 3 7.5 7.5 1 0.0 15 202 4 39-12 2 0.77
3  SAS 4 5.5 6.0 4 -0.5 17 201 6 35-14 4 0.70
4  CHI 2 5.0 -1.5 17 6.5 1 187 27 42-11 1 0.68
5  LAL 7 4.0 1.5 10 2.5 8 194 17 31-20 6 0.64
6  ORL 8 3.0 -1.5 20 4.5 5 189 25 32-20 5 0.61
7  PHI 6 2.5 -3.5 27 6.0 2 185 30 28-23 13 0.59
8  DAL 13 2.5 0.0 13 2.5 9 192 21 30-23 11 0.59
9  LAC 10 2.0 -1.5 18 3.5 6 190 23 30-21 8 0.59
10  NYK 5 2.0 1.5 11 0.5 14 195 11 26-26 17 0.59
11  BOS 15 2.0 -3.5 26 5.5 3 186 29 29-22 10 0.57
12  IND 9 1.5 0.5 12 1.0 13 194 15 30-20 7 0.57
13  MIL 14 1.5 6.0 2 -4.5 28 205 2 24-27 20 0.56
14  MEM 12 1.5 -0.5 15 2.0 10 192 20 27-22 12 0.56
15  DEN 11 1.0 6.0 3 -5.0 29 205 3 28-24 14 0.55
16  PHX 19 0.5 2.5 8 -2.0 21 199 7 25-26 18 0.52
17  UTA 18 0.5 2.0 9 -1.5 20 198 8 27-25 16 0.51
18  HOU 21 0.0 0.0 14 0.0 16 195 14 28-24 15 0.50
19  ATL 16 0.0 -2.5 22 2.5 7 189 24 31-22 9 0.49
20  MIN 20 -1.0 3.0 7 -4.0 27 201 5 25-28 19 0.46
21  POR 17 -1.0 -1.0 16 0.0 18 194 16 24-28 21 0.46
22  SAC 24 -3.0 5.5 5 -8.5 30 209 1 18-33 23 0.39
23  DET 23 -3.5 -5.0 28 1.5 12 189 26 18-33 24 0.37
24  TOR 26 -4.5 -3.0 24 -1.5 19 193 19 17-35 27 0.34
25  NOH 27 -4.5 -6.5 29 2.0 11 187 28 13-38 28 0.33
26  GSW 22 -5.0 -1.5 19 -3.5 26 197 9 20-30 22 0.31
27  WAS 29 -5.5 -2.0 21 -3.5 25 196 10 12-1 29 0.30
28  NJN 28 -5.5 -3.0 23 -2.5 22 195 13 18-35 26 0.29
29  CLE 25 -6.5 -3.0 25 -3.5 24 195 12 17-32 25 0.26
30  CHA 30 -9.5 -6.5 30 -3.0 23 191 22 7-1 30 0.18

GLOSSARY



  • LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.
  • oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).
  • dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).
  • GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under".  It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.
  • W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).

  • Additional Key Factors:
    • League Average Points Scored (APS): 97.5 points
    • Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.25 points
    • Back to Back Penalty (B2B): -0.75 points (see here)
    How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
    • Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA  + (B2Bhome - B2Baway) + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
    • Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)

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