Saturday, April 7, 2012

NBA Team Rankings - April 7, 2012


Oklahoma City 1890
Here are the NBA Betting Market Team Rankings as of April 7, 2012. These rankings use the Vegas point spreads from recent games to derive an implied measure of team strength (Generic Points Favored, or GPF).  By combining the point spread information with the betting over/unders, I can also decompose team strength into its offensive and defensive components (oGPF and dGPF). For more detail, see the Methodology page.


The Thunder have displaced the Heat from the top of the rankings this week, despite having lost three straight (including one to the Heat on Wednesday). The Thunder's last five games have been against the Pacers, Heat, Grizzlies, Bulls, and Lakers.  That they were only able win two out of those five shouldn't reflect too poorly on them given the strength of the competition they were facing.


The Magic are once again in a tailspin, dropping from #6 to #18 in a single week. You can check their progress (or lack thereof) daily at The Ticker.


The Rankings (glossary below)


Rank Team LstWk GPF oGPF dGPF GOU W-L GWP
1  OKC 2 7.0 6.5 2 0.5 13 200 6 40-15 3 0.75
2  SAS 3 6.5 7.5 1 -1.0 19 203 4 39-14 2 0.73
3  MIA 1 6.5 2.5 7 4.0 4 193 16 39-15 4 0.73
4  CHI 4 4.5 -2.0 22 6.5 1 185 27 43-13 1 0.67
5  LAL 5 3.0 2.0 10 1.0 12 196 11 35-21 5 0.62
6  LAC 9 3.0 -0.5 16 3.5 5 190 23 33-22 7 0.61
7  MEM 14 2.5 -1.5 18 4.0 6 189 26 31-23 10 0.59
8  IND 12 2.0 1.5 12 0.5 14 195 13 34-21 6 0.58
9  DAL 8 2.0 -1.0 17 3.0 7 190 24 31-25 12 0.58
10  BOS 11 2.0 -4.0 25 6.0 2 184 30 30-24 11 0.58
11  DEN 15 1.5 6.0 3 -4.5 28 205 3 30-25 14 0.56
12  NYK 10 1.5 0.0 13 1.5 11 193 18 28-27 17 0.56
13  PHI 7 1.5 -4.0 26 5.5 3 185 29 29-25 15 0.55
14  HOU 18 1.0 1.5 11 -0.5 16 196 10 30-25 13 0.55
15  PHX 16 1.0 2.5 8 -1.5 20 198 8 28-27 18 0.54
16  MIL 13 1.0 6.0 5 -5.0 29 205 2 27-28 19 0.54
17  UTA 17 1.0 2.5 9 -1.5 21 199 7 29-27 16 0.53
18  ORL 6 1.0 -2.0 20 3.0 8 190 22 32-23 9 0.53
19  ATL 19 0.0 -1.5 19 1.5 10 191 21 33-23 8 0.51
20  POR 21 -0.5 0.0 14 -0.5 17 195 14 27-29 20 0.48
21  MIN 20 -1.5 3.0 6 -4.5 27 202 5 25-31 21 0.45
22  SAC 22 -2.5 6.0 4 -8.5 30 209 1 19-36 26 0.40
23  GSW 26 -4.0 0.0 15 -4.0 25 198 9 21-33 22 0.35
24  NJN 28 -4.0 -2.0 21 -2.0 22 195 15 20-37 25 0.35
25  DET 23 -4.0 -4.5 27 0.5 15 189 25 21-34 23 0.35
26  TOR 24 -4.0 -3.5 24 -0.5 18 192 19 20-36 24 0.35
27  NOH 25 -4.5 -7.0 30 2.5 9 185 28 14-41 28 0.33
28  WAS 27 -7.0 -3.0 23 -4.0 26 195 12 12-44 29 0.25
29  CLE 29 -7.5 -4.5 28 -3.0 23 193 17 18-35 27 0.23
30  CHA 30 -9.5 -6.5 29 -3.0 24 191 20 7-46 30 0.19

GLOSSARY


  • LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.
  • oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).
  • dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).
  • GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under".  It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.
  • W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).

  • Additional Key Factors:
    • League Average Points Scored (APS): 97.0 points
    • Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.25 points
    • Back to Back Penalty (B2B): -1.25 points (see here)
    How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
    • Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA  + (B2Bhome - B2Baway) + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
    • Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)

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