New NBA feature: Dopplegamers


A new feature has been added to the site's NBA Win Probability Box Scores, borne largely out of my own idle curiosity. Click the "misc" tab and you'll see a table that looks like this:


Each game's win probability shape is compared to all other NBA games (since 1996-97), and the top three most similar games are shown on the table. A similarity score of 100% would imply identical win probability.

The most "glitch in the matrix" pair of games

Out of all ~30,000 NBA games since 1996, the highest similarity score was for a 2003-04 game between the Spurs and the Hawks and a 2004-05 game between the Heat and the Hornets:


The special snowflake game

Conversely, we can also see which game has the lowest top similarity score, implying an abnormally shaped win probability graph. That honor goes to a 2013-14 game between the Mavericks and the Trailblazers:


The Mavs jumped out to a 30 point lead early in the 2nd quarter, only to give it all back by the 3rd quarter, and fell behind by 6 late in the 4th before closing the game on an 11-0 run to win by 5. 
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