US Open Daily Graph - Hewitt vs Del Potro

Earlier this week, I posted my first attempt at a tennis win probability graph, using Victoria Duval's come from behind upset over Samantha Stosur as an example. I am going to try to make this a daily feature for the remainder of the US Open. Each day, I will pick a particularly noteworthy match and publish its win probability graph. As I don't follow tennis too closely, I am open to suggestions as to which match to feature.

For today's post, I am using Leyton Hewitt's upset victory over Juan Martin Del Potro. As with my Duval graph, I am calibrating the inputs to the model such that the initial probability matches the betting consensus (Hewitt with a 12.8% win probability). See the table at the bottom of the graph for the assumed serve and return point probabilities.

Leyton Hewitt65376Excitement6.5
Juan Martin Del Potro47661Comeback13

Point Probabilities (Model Inputs)
Del Potro0.6620.413
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