Saturday, September 29, 2018

The NBA's new shot clock rule and its effect on pace

Earlier this month, the NBA formally approved a change to its shot clock rules. Now, following an offensive rebound, the shot clock will reset to just 14 seconds, instead of the usual 24.

Over at Nylon Calculus, Daniel Massop argues that the effect on pace will be minimal, given that only 6 percent of offensive rebound possessions lasted more than 14 seconds. For a deeper dive, check out Blake Murphy's piece at Uproxx, which uses, among other data points, stats from the NBA's G-League, which went to the 14 second rule two seasons back.

As it turns out, the WNBA was also an early adopter of this rule change, having switched to 14 seconds for the 2016 season. That rule's impact on pace can provide clues to what will happen in the NBA this season.

The chart below shows average seconds per possession in the WNBA for every season.