Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Guess the Lines - Week 12

Here are the week 11 results and week 12 predictions for the "Guess the Lines" prediction contest. This is a weekly feature in which I put my Vegas NFL rankings to the test by predicting the point spread of upcoming NFL games. I compare the accuracy of my prediction against the predictions of Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal, as featured on their weekly NFL podcast. In addition, I also calculate an implied point spread from ESPN Chalk's weekly Vegas NFL rankings.

Here are the week 11 results. Cousin Sal was the winner this week, narrowly edging out my rankings with a mean absolute prediction error of 1.07 points (compared to my 1.11). The ESPN Chalk rankings came in last, with an error of 1.46.

Week 11 Resultspoint spread
gameaGPFhGPFmeespnbillsalactual
NO @ CAR 1.3 2.8 -4.0 -5.0 -3.0 -3.5 -3.5
BUF @ CIN 1.5 1.3 -2.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.5 -4.5
PIT @ CLE 3.2 -8.3 +9.0 +8.0 +13.0 +11.0 +9.5
BAL @ DAL -0.8 3.5 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 -8.0 -7.0
JAC @ DET -4.8 -1.5 -6.0 -4.5 -7.5 -7.5 -6.5
TEN @ IND -2.9 -2.3 -3.0 -3.5 -2.5 -4.0 -3.0
TB @ KC -3.7 2.5 -8.5 -7.5 -9.0 -6.5 -7.5
ARZ @ MIN 3.0 0.7 0.0 -3.0 -2.5 -3.5 +1.0
CHI @ NYG -4.4 1.0 -8.0 -5.5 -9.0 -7.0 -6.5
MIA @ LA -1.5 -2.8 -1.0 +0.5 +3.5 +2.5 +1.0
NE @ SF 9.2 -8.0 +14.5 +14.0 +14.0 +14.0 +14.0
PHI @ SEA 1.4 4.2 -5.5 -5.5 -6.0 -4.0 -6.0
GB @ WAS 2.0 0.3 -1.0 +1.5 -3.5 -3.0 -3.0
HOU @ OAK -1.4 1.2 -2.5 -2.0 -5.0 -6.0 -6.0
Mean Absolute Error 1.11 1.46 1.29 1.07

The closest prediction for each game is shown in bold.

Here is a summary of the weekly results. A reminder that a lower score is better (we are measuring average prediction error).

Mean Absolute Prediction Error:
week me espn bill sal
10 1.29 1.86 1.89 1.68
11 1.11 1.46 1.29 1.07
average 1.20 1.66 1.59 1.38


Week 12 Predictions

Here are the week 12 predictions for both my model, as well as the November 15 rankings from ESPN Chalk.

Week 12 Predictionspoint spread
gameaGPFhGPFmeespnbillsalactual
MIN @ DET 0.6 -1.2 -0.5 +3.0
WAS @ DAL 0.2 3.9 -6.0 -7.0
PIT @ IND 2.8 -2.1 +2.5 +0.5
LA @ NO -2.5 1.3 -6.5 -5.0
TEN @ CHI -2.1 -4.3 -0.5 +1.0
ARZ @ ATL 2.9 2.9 -2.5 -3.5
NYG @ CLE -0.2 -8.7 +6.0 +6.0
SD @ HOU 0.4 -2.3 0.0 -2.5
JAC @ BUF -4.9 1.0 -8.5 -7.5
CIN @ BAL 2.2 -0.7 +0.5 0.0
SF @ MIA -7.6 -1.2 -9.0 -10.5
SEA @ TB 4.9 -2.7 +5.0 +4.0
NE @ NYJ 8.3 -3.7 +9.5 +8.0
CAR @ OAK 2.7 2.1 -2.0 -4.0
KC @ DEN 2.7 3.0 -3.0 -4.0
GB @ PHI 0.4 1.8 -4.0 -1.5

For most games, my rankings and ESPN are within a point of each other. A few key differences are Minnesota at Detroit, San Diego at Houston, and Green Bay at Philadelphia, where the ESPN rankings have a more favorable view of Minnesota, Houston, and Green Bay. For example, Minnesota's implied Vegas ranking is 15th according to my model, while ESPN has them ranked 6th.

6 comments:

  1. I'd be interested in seeing how these all correlate with the actual result of the games. It would be remarkable if your estimates out-performed the actual vegas lines.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's a good idea. I can try to add it to future week's posts.

      Delete
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