Sunday, October 11, 2015

NFL Week Four Power Ranking Roundup

This time last year, nobody was quite sure what to make of the 2-2 Patriots. In my power ranking roundup post from last year, here is where six different ranking systems placed them:
  • Simple Ranking System - #26
  • Football Outsiders' DVOA - #23
  • FiveThirtyEight Elo - #7
  • ESPN Power Rankings - #16
  • Inpredictable Market Rankings - #14
  • Advanced Football Analytics' Efficiency Rankings - #27
As we know, the Patriots went on to win 10 of their 12 remaining regular season games en route to another Superbowl title - an outcome predicted with eerie prescience by Skip Bayless (of all people):
The New England Patriots will rise like the phoenix from the ashes of Monday night's 41-14 loss in Kansas City and land at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, playing in Super Bowl XLIX.
This year, however, there is no confusion, only consensus. The New England Patriots are the #1 team across all six power rankings after week four of the season. As a reminder, I archive these week four rankings and then test their accuracy in predicting future wins, once the season is finished.

A note that the Advanced Football Analytics' rankings are no more, as its founder Brian Burke has moved on to bigger and better things at ESPN. So, I am replacing the AFA rankings with the NFL ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) that Burke helped create in his new role. Also, all rankings below were compiled prior to Thursday Night's Colts-Texans game.

Here are the rankings. May the best nerd/pundit win:

team SRS DVOA 538 ESPN MARKET FPI
ARZ 4 2 7 4 6 2
ATL 2 5 9 6 7 7
BAL 15 14 11 19 9 12
BUF 5 8 12 12 8 11
CAR 17 10 6 8 14 15
CHI 31 31 29 29 30 31
CIN 7 4 5 5 5 5
CLE 25 24 28 25 26 27
DAL 10 19 10 13 25 16
DEN 12 7 3 3 4 8
DET 27 22 21 26 20 23
GB 11 3 2 2 2 3
HOU 28 30 23 28 24 24
IND 22 21 13 16 19 13
JAC 29 26 31 31 32 30
KC 19 27 16 18 13 14
MIA 26 28 25 30 27 25
MIN 18 20 18 14 12 20
NE 1 1 1 1 1 1
NO 20 25 24 21 21 22
NYG 3 11 15 15 15 17
NYJ 8 9 19 9 10 9
OAK 23 16 26 20 23 29
PHI 9 17 14 22 11 6
PIT 6 6 8 10 17 10
SD 24 23 17 17 16 18
SEA 16 12 4 7 3 4
SF 30 32 20 27 29 28
STL 14 13 22 11 18 19
TB 32 29 32 32 31 32
TEN 21 15 30 23 28 21
WAS 13 18 27 24 22 26

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