Sunday, June 14, 2015

How Much Actual Time is Left in the Game?

The Persistence of NBA Game Time
Close games in the NBA can somewhat of a mixed blessing. As the drama increases, the pace tends to drag, as teams call timeouts to draw up set plays, players are fouled to stop the clock, and officials await decisions from the NBA's centralized review office in New Jersey. On average, the final minute of an NBA game takes over 5 minutes of real time to complete, and that number gets much larger if the game is close.

Here are some cheat sheets I put together that give you a sense as to how much real time is left in an NBA game, as a function of scoring margin and game time remaining. I had hoped to build a real time view of this into my live win probability graphs, but that will likely have to wait for the offseason.

The first chart shows how much total time is left in the game. Note that this includes any overtime play, which is why the time remaining is so large for tie games in the final minute.

What about just time left in regulation?


Note that the time remaining for a tie game is now less than that for a game separated by a point, most likely due to teams holding for the last possession in a tie game.

It appears that if the game is in reach going into the final minute (i.e. within 6 points), that last minute takes about 8 to 9 minutes to complete on average. The final chart shows how that "multiplier effect" works as a function of time remaining and score difference.


The highest multiplier occurs when a team is trailing by 1 or 2 points, with possession, and with 15 seconds remaining in the game. Those 15 seconds of game time are multiplied 16 times over in real time. 

5 comments:

  1. I must appreciate the way you have express your feelings through your blog!
    PPC Expert

    ReplyDelete
  2. I quite like reading an article that can make people think. Also, thanks for allowing for me to comment! Check This Out

    ReplyDelete
  3. Many programmers got their start as game testers, so if you are ambitious and driven to learn and succeed, and want to build and design games, not simply test them, then this is a career path to give serious consideration to.
    ToomkyGames

    ReplyDelete
  4. Huge news! WOW Tomb of Sargeras raid on Normal and Heroic difficulty have been available now. That means, you can upgrade your legendary items to ilvl 970 from now on. tomb of sargeras boost

    ReplyDelete
  5. Being a forum also means that you are not only restricted to gamers and hackers that you know as many people from various parts of the world use the forums to share information. Hacked Games Android

    ReplyDelete