Friday, January 2, 2015

Playoff Edition of NFL Rankings Now Available

NFL playoff treeA playoff version of my NFL rankings are now available and will be updated daily. The new table has columns showing every team's probability of advancing past each round of the playoffs. The rankings will also be updated each day with the latest point spreads and over/unders. When calculating the rankings, I exclude week 17 of the regular season as there are too many meaningless games that can skew the betting lines.

I also have a column on the right with each team's implied "fair" Superbowl odds. Comparing these odds to the futures odds being offered by 5Dimes, bets on the Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, and New England Patriots would be positive expected value. The futures market views Seattle as the clear Superbowl favorite, much moreso than what my rankings indicate.

My Superbowl probabilities actually align much closer with the playoff odds at Advanced Football Analytics.

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