Saturday, November 8, 2014

NBA Win Probability Graphs for the 2014-15 Season

20140101 Kevin Martin (7)
Current WPA leader,
Minnesota's Kevin Martin
NBA Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores are now available for the 2014-15 season. All of last year's features are back: Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores, Player Win Probability Totals, and the Top Game Finder.

Last night's double-overtime game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Charlotte Hornets was the most exciting game (so far) of the season (according to the Excitement Index, which sums the win probability ups and downs of each game). The Hawks were able to comeback from a 0.1% win probability in the first overtime (down 6 with 22 seconds to go) to force a second overtime. A third overtime seemed likely before Lance Stephenson's buzzer beating off-the-backboard three pointer won it for Charlotte. Prior to last night's performance, Stephenson had the worst total Win Probability Added of any player. Even with that clutch shot, he is still in the bottom ten. In terms of expected Win Probability Added (eWPA), which is a context-independent version of WPA based just on box score stats, Lance is still at the bottom.

Timberwolf Kevin Martin has the early lead in the MVP race, with +131% in win probability added over four games (with most of that coming in a losing effort against the Bulls).

As I indicated previously, I have a bigger rollout planned with new data and new features, but here is the "old" version in the meantime while I continue to work out the kinks.

2 comments:

  1. When do you expect to have enough data to update the GPF/GOU for NBA current season? Great work I love looking at this stuff

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    1. An update on that probably coming this weekend.

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