Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Turnover Index - Week 9

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 9. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 8 results

Week 8 picks went 1-2 against the spread. Fortunately, the one successful bet was with the highest stake, so the overall loss to the bankroll was minimal. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 5-4
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $867 (-13% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
4 2 0 $1,000 $268 (26.8%) ($268) $731
6 1 1 $731 $32 (4.5%) $29 $761
7 3 3 $761 $130 (17.1%) $118 $879
8 3 1 $879 $70 (8.1%) ($12) $867

Week 9 Picks

There are seven recommended bets against the spread this week. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion. We're betting 19.2% of our $867 bankroll this week.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Bears @ Packers 18 7 -11 -1.6 Packers 54.4% 4.3%
Colts @ Texans 13 5 -8 -1.1 Texans 53.2% 1.8%
Falcons @ Panthers 6 15 9 1.3 Falcons 53.6% 2.6%
Steelers @ Patriots 5 16 11 1.3 Steelers 53.6% 2.6%
Chargers @ Redskins 4 12 8 1.1 Chargers 53.2% 1.8%
Saints @ Jets 15 5 -10 -1.5 Jets 54.3% 3.9%
Buccaneers @ Seahawks 10 21 11 1.2 Buccaneers 53.4% 2.1%

The "Old" Index

Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 3-2 against the spread.

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