Sunday, June 24, 2012

MLB Team Rankings - Part Two: Results

Texas Ranger 1846
Texas Ranger
This is part two of a post on creating betting market power rankings for major league baseball.  Part one focused on methodology.  You can find it here.

Part two of this post covers the actual rankings.  In a nutshell, I'm using the information contained in the moneylines and run totals set by the Vegas sportsbooks to "reverse engineer" an implied power ranking.  Part one of this post covers the methodology in more (excruciating) detail.


These rankings are based on results and betting information as of the morning of Sunday, June 24, 2012.  I plan to publish these daily in a format similar to my Ticker format for the NBA.

MLB Team Rankings - Part One: Methodology

Bronnikov gimnpifagoreizev
Pythagoreans celebrate sunrise
This is part one of a two part post on creating betting market power rankings for major league baseball.  If you don't want to read me drone on about my mathematical difficulties (and I don't blame you if you don't), you can skip to part two for the actual rankings.


I first created these rankings for the NFL over at Brian Burke's Advanced NFL Stats Community site.  After launching this blog in January, I created similar rankings for the NBA and College Basketball.


The basic idea is to use the information contained in the moneylines and totals used by the Vegas sports books to reverse engineer an implied power ranking.  See the Methodology page for a simple example.  In the same way that prediction markets like Intrade.com can be used to gain insight into things like the upcoming Supreme Court decision on the individual mandate, I'm following the money in the betting markets to gain insight on team (and pitcher) strength.