Sunday, May 20, 2012

2012 NFL Rankings - First Look

Green Bay Packer hearse
In this recent post, I took a look at the Week 1 opening point spreads for the 2012 NFL season in an effort to get an early read on changes in team strength. In the comments, it was pointed out that Cantor Gaming has published point spreads for the entire 2012 NFL season (except for Week 17). You can find them here (courtesy of beyondthebets.com).

Getting 16 weeks of point spreads is a virtual goldmine for my ranking system, as my rankings developed in-season are based on weekly point spreads that are constantly being re-calibrated to injuries, roster changes, etc.  I think there's a lot of interesting results to tease out of this data set, but for this post, I am focusing on just looking at overall rankings and how they compare to last year.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

2012 NFL Opening Lines - An Analysis

The 2012 NFL regular season is still 113 days away, but you can start making bets now. Point spreads for Week 1 of the NFL season are now available, courtesy of Football Locks. The purpose of this post is to review how these point spreads compare to my 2011 NFL point spread rankings. This will give us an early read on who the betting market thinks the off-season winners and losers have been so far.

Here is some background on how the rankings were developed.  The Methodology page also has a simplified example.

For the purpose of this analysis, I am going to use the 2011 Week 16 rankings I published at the Advanced NFL Stats Community site. The table below compares the predicted point spread for each game to the actual point spread. The bar in each row of the table is proportional to the magnitude of the miss and points in the direction of the team that the point spread miss favored (similar to the currently dormant Today's Games feature).  A negative point spread indicates the home team is favored (a convention that has always confused me).

Saturday, May 5, 2012

The Ticker - Playoff Edition (updated daily)

The two daily features of this site (Today's Games and The Ticker) were dark for the past week, ever since the NBA regular season ended.

I have now relaunched The Ticker with a focus on the playoffs.  Rather than focus on team rankings and Generic Points Favored (GPF), the focus is now on win probability: the probability that a given team will make it through the first round, the probability that a team will win the NBA championship, etc.


Here is an abbreviated description of the new features (I hope to go into more detail later, time permitting):