Week 15 Performance
Results were once again split for week 15, going 3-3 against the spread.
Turnover Index through Week 15 (Against the Spread): 17-13-1
Overall, that is 56% against the spread. Still above the breakeven point of 52.4%, but definitely a drop off from the high water mark of 67% we saw after week 11.
Regression, Randomness, and BearsMy week 10 post focused on the Bears and their (at the time) league-leading defensive turnovers. Based on prior seasons, most teams that had achieved that level of turnovers were not able to sustain that performance for the remainder of the season. Through eight games, the Bears had averaged 3.5 defensive turnovers per game, won 7 of 8, and were 5-2-1 against the spread. Over the next 6 games, the Bears averaged 1.5 turnovers per game, lost 5 of 6, and went 1-5 against the spread.
Week 16 Picks
There are four betting opportunities this week. As a reminder, the criterion we use is any game in which there is at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the two teams. We bet on the team with the lower amount of turnovers. See the table at the bottom of the post for the details.
- New England @ Jacksonville - Pick: Jacksonville
- Washington @ Philadelphia - Pick: Philadelphia
- Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh - Pick: Pittsburgh
- Atlanta @ Detroit - Pick: Detroit
Here is the complete table of matchups: