Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Turnover Index - Week 16

Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 16 of the NFL season.  The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities that exploit the market's tendency to overvalue a team's season to date defensive turnovers.  See here and here for more background.


Week 15 Performance

Results were once again split for week 15, going 3-3 against the spread.

Turnover Index through Week 15 (Against the Spread): 17-13-1

Overall, that is 56% against the spread.  Still above the breakeven point of 52.4%, but definitely a drop off from the high water mark of 67% we saw after week 11.

Regression, Randomness, and Bears

My week 10 post focused on the Bears and their (at the time) league-leading defensive turnovers.  Based on prior seasons, most teams that had achieved that level of turnovers were not able to sustain that performance for the remainder of the season.  Through eight games, the Bears had averaged 3.5 defensive turnovers per game, won 7 of 8, and were 5-2-1 against the spread.  Over the next 6 games, the Bears averaged 1.5 turnovers per game, lost 5 of 6, and went 1-5 against the spread.


Week 16 Picks

There are four betting opportunities this week.  As a reminder, the criterion we use is any game in which there is at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the two teams.  We bet on the team with the lower amount of turnovers.  See the table at the bottom of the post for the details.

  • New England @ Jacksonville - Pick: Jacksonville
  • Washington @ Philadelphia - Pick: Philadelphia
  • Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh - Pick: Pittsburgh
  • Atlanta @ Detroit - Pick: Detroit

Here is the complete table of matchups: