Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Turnover Index - Week 15

Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 15 of the NFL season.  The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities that exploit the market's tendency to overvalue a team's season to date defensive turnovers.  See here and here for more background.


Week 14 Performance

Results were split for week 14, going 3-3 against the spread.

Turnover Index through Week 10 (Against the Spread): 14-10-1

Overall, that is 58% against the spread, still consistent with the results from 1998-2011.  But recent weeks' picks have not performed as well as the early season picks.

Week 15 Picks

Once again, there are six betting opportunities this week.  As a reminder, the criterion we use is any game in which there is at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the two teams.  We bet on the team with the lower amount of turnovers.  See the table at the bottom of the post for the details.

  • Cincinnati @ Philadelphia - Pick: Philadelphia
  • NY Giants @ Atlanta - Pick: Atlanta
  • Detroit @ Arizona - Pick: Detroit
  • Green Bay @ Chicago - Pick: Green Bay
  • San Francisco @ New New England - Pick: San Francisco
  • Indianapolis @ Houston - Pick: Indianapolis

Here is the complete table of matchups: