Sunday, December 2, 2012

Alabama - Notre Dame Opening Line

In this post, I made a prediction on the point spread and over/under for the two possible BCS title games (Notre Dame vs. Alabama or Georgia).  Even though the game has not been officially announced, Vegas is not wasting anytime (this game is projected to be the most heavily bet game ever).  Opening lines are available and it looks like my prediction favored Alabama too much (by about 3 points).

My rankings as of November 25 predicted Alabama as an 11 point favorite over Notre Dame.  Even prior to the release of the line, that looked to be on the high end of estimates I could find from gambling experts, where things ranged from 7 points to 11 points.  In an earlier post this week, I put my rankings to the test against the Linemakers' rankings.  According to their November 28 rankings, Alabama should have been a six point favorite.

Things still seem to be a bit fluid, but best as I can tell the line is currently 8 points in favor of Alabama, which means my prediction was off by 3 points.  However, my rankings are calibrated to closing lines, so I will probably check in at least once prior to the title game to see which way the line moves.


  1. As of this morning (December 3), the consensus line seems to be up to 9.5 points (link: SBRForum odds).

  2. Consensus now seems to be at 10 points, inching closer to my prediction.

    My over/under prediction was off by more though (I had predicted 38 points, and it is currently at 42). It may be due to the fact that the matchup has the #1 and #3 defenses and that my simple linear approach breaks down at the extreme ends of the scale.

    Last year's BCS game opened with Alabama-LSU at around a pickem, but eventually converged to Alabama as a 2.5 point favorite.

  3. Line now at 9.5 points. Over/under at 40.5 points. I missed the line by 1.5 points and the over/under by 2 points.