Saturday, February 25, 2012

NBA Team Rankings - February 25, 2012

New York Knickerbockers Baseball Club, circa 1847
The New York Knickerbockers Baseball Club
Here are the February 25, 2012 NBA Team Rankings.  These rankings use the Vegas point spreads from recent games to derive an implied measure of team strength (Generic Points Favored, or GPF).  By combining the point spread information with the betting over/unders, I can also decompose team strength into its offensive and defensive components (oGPF and dGPF).  For more detail, see the Methodology page.


The rankings were pretty stable this week, especially at the top, with no movement among the top 4.  The Heat have maintained their two point GPF cushion over the next best team, the Thunder.  This is consistent with the latest NBA Futures Odds, which has the Heat as the clear favorite at 6/5, and the next best team at 5/1 (the Bulls).



Of course, the biggest story in the league is still Jeremy Lin and the Knicks' resurgence.  That resurgence has started to show up in the point spreads, as the Knicks climbed from #20 to #13 this week.


The disconnect between the Pacers' #6 W-L record and their #14 GPF rank could be due to strength of schedule (#28 out of 30, according to basketball-reference.com).  Their last five games were against the Cavs, the Nets, the Bobcats, the Hornets, and the Bobcats again.  Or #26, #25, #30, #27, and #30 (although the number 30 just doesn't do justice to how bad the Bobcats are right now).


The Rankings (glossary below)



Rank Team LstWk GPF oGPF dGPF GOU W-L GWP
1  MIA 1 8.5 7.5 2 1.0 12 197 4 27-7 2 0.79
2  OKC 2 6.5 8.0 1 -1.5 18 200 2 27-7 1 0.73
3  CHI 3 5.5 0.5 14 5.0 6 187 22 27-8 3 0.69
4  DAL 4 5.0 0.0 16 5.0 5 186 23 21-13 8 0.68
5  LAC 6 4.5 2.0 7 2.5 9 190 18 20-11 5 0.67
6  SAS 5 4.0 3.5 5 0.5 13 194 10 24-10 4 0.65
7  ORL 9 4.0 -1.0 19 5.0 4 185 25 22-13 7 0.65
8  LAL 8 3.5 -1.5 20 5.0 2 185 26 20-14 9 0.63
9  POR 10 3.5 1.5 9 2.0 10 190 19 18-16 14 0.63
10  PHI 7 3.0 -2.5 24 5.5 1 183 27 20-14 11 0.61
11  HOU 16 1.5 2.0 8 -0.5 14 193 11 20-14 12 0.55
12  MEM 13 1.5 -2.0 21 3.5 8 186 24 19-15 13 0.55
13  NYK 20 0.5 1.0 12 -0.5 15 193 13 17-18 17 0.52
14  IND 12 0.5 1.0 11 -0.5 16 193 12 21-12 6 0.52
15  DEN 11 0.0 6.0 3 -6.0 29 202 1 18-17 15 0.51
16  MIN 19 0.0 2.5 6 -2.5 22 196 7 17-17 16 0.50
17  BOS 15 0.0 -5.0 28 5.0 3 181 30 15-17 18 0.49
18  GSW 17 -0.5 4.0 4 -4.5 27 199 3 13-17 20 0.49
19  ATL 14 -0.5 -4.5 26 4.0 7 183 28 20-14 10 0.47
20  UTA 18 -1.0 0.0 17 -1.0 17 192 15 15-17 19 0.46
21  MIL 21 -1.5 0.5 15 -2.0 20 194 9 13-20 23 0.44
22  PHX 22 -1.5 1.0 13 -2.5 23 195 8 14-20 22 0.44
23  SAC 23 -3.5 1.0 10 -4.5 28 197 6 11-22 24 0.37
24  DET 25 -5.0 -3.0 25 -2.0 21 191 17 11-24 25 0.31
25  NJN 26 -5.0 -2.5 23 -2.5 24 191 16 10-25 27 0.31
26  CLE 24 -5.5 -2.0 22 -3.5 26 192 14 13-18 21 0.31
27  NOH 27 -5.5 -7.5 30 2.0 11 181 29 8-25 28 0.31
28  WAS 28 -6.0 0.0 18 -6.0 30 197 5 7-26 29 0.28
29  TOR 29 -6.0 -5.0 27 -1.0 19 187 20 10-23 26 0.28
30  CHA 30 -10.0 -7.0 29 -3.0 25 187 21 4-28 30 0.17

GLOSSARY


  • LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.
  • oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).
  • dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored".  The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).
  • GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under".  It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.
  • W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).

  • Additional Key Factors:
    • League Average Points Scored (APS): 95.5 points
    • Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.25 points
    • Back to Back Penalty (B2B): -0.75 points (see here)
    How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
    • Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA  + (B2Bhome - B2Baway) + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
    • Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)

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