Monday, February 27, 2012

College Basketball Team Rankings - February 27, 2012

My Old Kentucky Home 1
I've always liked Randy Newman's version
Google Visualization API Sample
Here are the College Basketball Team Rankings as of February 27, 2012.  These rankings use the Vegas point spreads to derive an implied team by team ranking.  My original post of the rankings has more detail on the methodology.


Kentucky is back on top again, with a half point lead over Ohio State.  Despite Ohio State's drop, the Big Ten overall gets a lot of respect in these rankings, with three of the top ten teams, and 9 of the top 64.  Also, the top 4 teams in Strength of Schedule (the SOS column) are all Big Ten teams.  It will be interesting to see if this holds come the NCAA tournament.  It's impossible to tell at this point as the Big Ten teams have not been playing inter-conference games (at least not ones with betting action).



Of the unranked teams (according to the AP and the Coaches), California (#13) is the strongest according to these rankings.  Their current RPI is #39.  The Bears may make a good pick to play above their seed in the NCAA tournament.


Here's another view of the differences between the polls and these rankings.  The scatter plot below uses Google Visualization API.  Hover over each data point for more info.  As you can see, the biggest differences are San Diego State and Murray State.
And here are the rankings (glossary below):
Other Rankings
Rank Team LstWk GPF Conf SOS GWP KenPom AP Coaches
1 Kentucky 2 18.5 SEC 1 3.5 57 0.96 1 1 1
2 Ohio St. 1 18.0 B10 1 7.0 4 0.95 2 10 11
3 Syracuse 3 17.0 BE 1 3.5 53 0.94 6 2 2
4 Kansas 4 17.0 B12 1 6.0 17 0.94 4 3 4
5 North Carolina 6 16.5 ACC 1 4.0 46 0.94 7 6 6
6 Michigan St. 5 16.0 B10 2 6.5 11 0.94 3 5 5
7 Duke 8 13.5 ACC 2 5.5 33 0.90 10 4 3
8 Wisconsin 13 13.5 B10 3 7.0 3 0.90 5 14 15
9 Missouri 7 13.5 B12 2 5.5 32 0.90 9 7 8
10 Florida 9 12.0 SEC 2 5.0 39 0.88 17 16 13
11 Wichita St. 11 12.0 MVC 1 2.5 81 0.88 8 15 14
12 Marquette 17 12.0 BE 2 5.5 28 0.88 16 8 7
13 California 15 11.5 P12 1 2.5 77 0.87 24
14 Vanderbilt 16 11.5 SEC 3 5.5 24 0.87 20
15 Baylor 12 11.0 B12 3 7.0 5 0.87 18 9 10
16 Georgetown 14 11.0 BE 3 5.5 26 0.86 13 11 12
17 Louisville 18 11.0 BE 4 5.0 34 0.86 27 19 18
18 New Mexico 10 10.5 MWC 1 1.0 106 0.86 15
19 Indiana 19 10.5 B10 4 7.5 1 0.85 11 18 20
20 Gonzaga 28 10.5 WCC 1 0.5 112 0.85 33
21 Saint Louis 25 10.0 A10 1 0.5 115 0.84 12
22 Texas 23 10.0 B12 4 6.0 13 0.84 26
23 UNLV 20 10.0 MWC 2 2.5 74 0.84 30 17 17
24 Temple 33 10.0 A10 2 2.0 92 0.84 34 23 25
25 Kansas St. 32 10.0 B12 5 5.5 27 0.84 23
26 Memphis 31 10.0 CUSA 1 3.0 69 0.84 14
27 Michigan 21 9.5 B10 5 7.5 2 0.83 25 13 16
28 West Virginia 22 9.0 BE 5 6.0 19 0.82 45
29 Notre Dame 29 9.0 BE 6 6.0 12 0.81 32 20 19
30 Florida St. 26 9.0 ACC 3 4.5 42 0.81 29 22 22
31 UCLA 30 8.5 P12 2 2.5 80 0.81 52
32 Virginia 37 8.5 ACC 4 4.0 48 0.81 19 24
33 St. Mary's 60 8.5 WCC 2 0.0 123 0.81 41 21
34 Purdue 40 8.5 B10 6 5.5 23 0.81 28
35 BYU 27 8.0 WCC 3 0.5 121 0.80 38
36 Connecticut 24 8.0 BE 7 6.5 9 0.80 36
37 Cincinnati 38 8.0 BE 8 4.5 41 0.79 37
38 Long Beach St. 34 8.0 BW 1 0.5 113 0.79 42
39 Arizona 39 7.5 P12 3 2.5 70 0.78 44
40 Northwestern 41 7.5 B10 7 6.5 8 0.78 56
41 Minnesota 48 7.5 B10 8 5.0 40 0.77 61
42 Creighton 36 7.5 MVC 2 2.5 78 0.77 39 25 24
43 Alabama 51 7.0 SEC 4 5.5 29 0.77 21
44 Illinois 35 7.0 B10 9 6.5 10 0.76 63
45 Pittsburgh 43 7.0 BE 9 6.0 15 0.76 90
46 VA Commonwealth 47 7.0 CAA 1 -2.5 186 0.76 47
47 Tennessee 55 7.0 SEC 5 3.5 60 0.76 65
48 Washington 45 6.5 P12 4 3.5 59 0.75 68
49 North Carolina St. 50 6.5 ACC 5 3.5 56 0.75 58
50 Clemson 42 6.5 ACC 6 2.0 93 0.75 67
51 Miami Florida 65 6.5 ACC 7 3.0 66 0.75 40
52 Iowa St. 44 6.5 B12 6 4.0 45 0.75 31
53 South Florida 69 6.5 BE 10 4.0 47 0.74 69
54 San Diego St. 54 6.5 MWC 3 2.5 75 0.74 60 21 23
55 Seton Hall 59 6.0 BE 11 5.0 35 0.74 43
56 Stanford 52 6.0 P12 5 2.5 79 0.73 54
57 Oregon 61 6.0 P12 6 3.5 58 0.73 72
58 Colorado 62 6.0 P12 7 3.0 65 0.72 85
59 Middle Tenn St. 70 5.5 SB 1 -4.0 232 0.72 50
60 Harvard 58 5.5 Ivy 1 -3.0 212 0.71 35
61 Oregon St. 56 5.5 P12 8 2.5 73 0.71 91
62 Iona 49 5.5 MAAC 1 -3.5 219 0.71 49
63 Southern Miss 53 5.0 CUSA 2 1.0 104 0.70 66
64 Oral Roberts 75 5.0 Sum 1 -2.0 173 0.70 89
66 Murray St. 57 5.0 OVC 1 -4.5 239 0.69 48 12 9

Glossary

  • LstWk - The team's ranking from the prior week
  • GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored".  It's what you'd expect the team to be favored by against a Div-I average opponent at a neutral site.
  • Conf - The conference the team plays in and their GPF rank within that conference
  • SOS - Stands for "Strength of Schedule".  It's the average GPF of the teams faced thus far this season (along with the corresponding rank).
  • GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability".  I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: GWP = 1/(1+exp(-GPF/6))
  • KenPom - The team's rank according to kenpom.com.  The best college basketball stats site you're going to find.
  • AP - The team's rank (if it exists) according to the AP Top 25 poll.
  • Coaches - The team's rank (if it exists) according to the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll.

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