About inpredictable

This site began as a venue for publishing my team rankings based on betting market information. It has since evolved into my general playground for sports analytics work, focusing primarily on the NBA and WNBA.

You can find win probability graphs for every NBA game going back to the 1996-97 season (i.e. the beginning of the NBA play-by-play era). You can find the same for the entire 22+ year history of the WNBA. In addition there are several other tools built around the concept of win probability (e.g. player win probability added, a top games finder, and a "record explainer").

Advanced efficiency and pace stats are available for both the NBA and WNBA, including separate measures of offensive and defensive pace, and efficiency and pace stats split by how a possession began.

For an all too brief period, detailed player and ball tracking data was publicly available for the NBA (if you knew where to look). For the most part, research related to this data has focused on the positions of the players, leading to a creation of a whole host of new stats and new ways to analyze the game. Leveraging my physics background, I have focused largely on what we can learn by tracking the position of the ball, resulting in unique research on shot mechanics, shooting accuracy, and even ball pressure. Here is a sampling of that research:

About me

This site is my hobby, and I am solely responsible for its content. I have written in the past for FiveThirtyEight and Deadspin. My work has been featured in ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, and The Pudding. And, to my eternal pride, inpredictable gets a shoutout in the footnotes (page 137) of Shea Serrano's Basketball and Other Things.

Journalists, academics, and the generally curious can reach me at boooeee@gmail.com if they have any questions about the work and stats I publish here. I am also willing to share code and data, depending on the project. And if you have questions on how to get started in sports analytics, I am always willing to share advice.

My formal training is in physics (B.S. from Indiana University and a Masters from Purdue), but I have spent the entirety of my professional career as a health insurance actuary. I was profiled in a series of articles for the Wall Street Journal, focusing on the work done by myself and my team leading up to the rollout of the Affordable Care Act.

If you have questions about the actuarial field, or what it's like to work for my current employer, a mission-driven, non-profit, feel free to reach out:

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