Saturday, December 24, 2016

Guess the Lines - Final Results

Here are the week 16 results for the final installment of "Guess the Lines". This is a weekly feature in which I put my Vegas NFL rankings to the test by predicting the point spread of upcoming NFL games. I compare the accuracy of my prediction against those of Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal, as featured on their weekly NFL podcast. In addition, I also calculate an implied point spread from ESPN Chalk's weekly Vegas NFL rankings.

I'm not sure if Bill and Sal intend to do a Week 17 podcast, but I've decided to halt the prediction contest at Week 16. Week 17 lines can be a bit wonky due to teams that don't have anything to play for.

Here are the week 16 results. Bill Simmons wins this week with a mean absolute prediction error of 0.84 points.

Friday, December 23, 2016

Turnover Index Week 16

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 16. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

We went 0-1 with our single Week 14 bet, and our bankroll dropped by $17 from $1,023 to $1,006. We are now 6-7 against the spread on the season, with an ever so slightly positive ROI of 0.5%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 0 $1,000 $36 (3.6%) ($36) $963
7 1 1 $963 $10 (1.1%) $9 $973
8 1 1 $973 $38 (4.0%) $35 $1,008
9 3 2 $1,008 $64 (6.4%) $51 $1,060
10 2 1 $1,060 $15 (1.5%) ($7) $1,052
12 2 1 $1,052 $13 (1.3%) ($6) $1,046
13 2 0 $1,046 $23 (2.2%) ($23) $1,023
14 1 0 $1,023 $17 (1.7%) ($17) $1,005

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Guess the Lines Week 16

Here are the week 15 results and week 16 predictions for this installment of "Guess the Lines". This is a weekly feature in which I put my Vegas NFL rankings to the test by predicting the point spread of upcoming NFL games. I compare the accuracy of my prediction against those of Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal, as featured on their weekly NFL podcast. In addition, I also calculate an implied point spread from ESPN Chalk's weekly Vegas NFL rankings.

Here are the week 15 results. Cousin Sal wins this week with a mean absolute prediction error of 0.94 points.

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Turnover Index Week 14

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 14. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

We went 0-2 with our Week 13 bets, and our bankroll dropped by $23 from $1,046 to $1,023. We are now just 6-6 against the spread on the season, with an ROI of 2.3%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 0 $1,000 $36 (3.6%) ($36) $963
7 1 1 $963 $10 (1.1%) $9 $973
8 1 1 $973 $38 (4.0%) $35 $1,008
9 3 2 $1,008 $64 (6.4%) $51 $1,060
10 2 1 $1,060 $15 (1.5%) ($7) $1,052
12 2 1 $1,052 $13 (1.3%) ($6) $1,046
13 2 0 $1,046 $23 (2.2%) ($23) $1,023

Guess the Lines - Week 15

Here are the week 14 results and week 15 predictions for this installment of "Guess the Lines". This is a weekly feature in which I put my Vegas NFL rankings to the test by predicting the point spread of upcoming NFL games. I compare the accuracy of my prediction against those of Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal, as featured on their weekly NFL podcast. In addition, I also calculate an implied point spread from ESPN Chalk's weekly Vegas NFL rankings.

Here are the week 14 results. Bill Simmons wins for the second week in a row, with a mean absolute error of 1.00 points.

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Guess the Lines Week 14

Here are the week 13 results and week 14 predictions for this installment of "Guess the Lines". This is a weekly feature in which I put my Vegas NFL rankings to the test by predicting the point spread of upcoming NFL games. I compare the accuracy of my prediction against those of Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal, as featured on their weekly NFL podcast. In addition, I also calculate an implied point spread from ESPN Chalk's weekly Vegas NFL rankings.

Here are the week 13 results. Bill Simmons wins this week, with an impressive mean absolute error of 0.87 points. ESPN Chalk rankings continue to bring up the rear.

Turnover Index Week 13

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Once again, we went 1-1 with our Week 12 bets, and our bankroll dropped by $6 from $1,052 to $1,046. We are now 6-4 against the spread on the season, with an ROI of 4.6%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 0 $1,000 $36 (3.6%) ($36) $963
7 1 1 $963 $10 (1.1%) $9 $973
8 1 1 $973 $38 (4.0%) $35 $1,008
9 3 2 $1,008 $64 (6.4%) $51 $1,060
10 2 1 $1,060 $15 (1.5%) ($7) $1,052
12 2 1 $1,052 $13 (1.3%) ($6) $1,046