Saturday, September 24, 2016

NFL Playoff Implications - Week 3

Here are playoff implications for week three of the NFL season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the Thursday night game have already been taken into account.

Ranking Week 3 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 3 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

NFL Playoff Implications - Week 2

Here are playoff implications for week two of the NFL season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the Thursday night game have already been taken into account.

Ranking Week 2 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 2 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Sunday, September 11, 2016

NFL Playoff Implications - Week 1

Playoff implications return for the 2016 season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the Thursday night season opener have already been taken into account.

Ranking Week 1 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 1 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

NFL Market Rankings are Live

NFL Vegas rankings are live and will update daily for the remainder of the season. These rankings are an attempt to reverse engineer what the market "thinks". Markets tend to be efficient, and betting markets are no exception. It is difficult to beat the accuracy of the Vegas point spread over any extended period of time. Based on my own research, these Vegas rankings outperform a broad cross-section of NFL power rankings when it comes to predicting future wins.

The current version of the rankings reflect both the latest Week 1 lines and the opening lines for Week 2. Because there are not enough connections between teams with just two weeks of point spreads, I use the week 1-16 point spreads published by CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) earlier this year to fill in the gaps. But once we have week 3 opening lines, the teams should all be connected and we can dispense with the outdated CG lines.

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

20 Years of WNBA Win Probability Graphs

The NBA season is still some two months away, but the WNBA season is in full swing. Regular season play has now resumed following the Olympics shutdown, and the playoffs are just a few weeks away.

One of my offseason goals this year was to extend many of the tools and analysis I had developed for the men's game to the WNBA. I started small last month with the addition of the WNBA to my suite of Vegas team rankings. Today, I have a much more substantial update to announce:

The following tools and stats are available for the entire 20 year history of the WNBA:


Building a Win Probability Model for the WNBA

The nice thing about this project is that I didn't have to start from scratch. WNBA data is structured very similarly to NBA data, so in a lot of ways, I could just point my existing code and methodology to a new dataset. The WNBA win probability model was built using the same approach as the NBA win probability model. It is based on play by play data for over 2,000 WNBA games, going back to the 2007 season.