Friday, December 23, 2016

Turnover Index Week 16

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 16. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

We went 0-1 with our single Week 14 bet, and our bankroll dropped by $17 from $1,023 to $1,006. We are now 6-7 against the spread on the season, with an ever so slightly positive ROI of 0.5%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 0 $1,000 $36 (3.6%) ($36) $963
7 1 1 $963 $10 (1.1%) $9 $973
8 1 1 $973 $38 (4.0%) $35 $1,008
9 3 2 $1,008 $64 (6.4%) $51 $1,060
10 2 1 $1,060 $15 (1.5%) ($7) $1,052
12 2 1 $1,052 $13 (1.3%) ($6) $1,046
13 2 0 $1,046 $23 (2.2%) ($23) $1,023
14 1 0 $1,023 $17 (1.7%) ($17) $1,005


This will be the last week of turnover index picks (we take week 17 off). We have just one bet this week and it will determine whether we finish the season with a positive ROI. We are betting 1.2% of our bankroll on the Browns to cover against the Chargers.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Chargers @ Browns 27 11 -16 -1.1 Browns 52.9% 1.2%

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