Saturday, December 10, 2016

Turnover Index Week 14

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 14. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

We went 0-2 with our Week 13 bets, and our bankroll dropped by $23 from $1,046 to $1,023. We are now just 6-6 against the spread on the season, with an ROI of 2.3%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 0 $1,000 $36 (3.6%) ($36) $963
7 1 1 $963 $10 (1.1%) $9 $973
8 1 1 $973 $38 (4.0%) $35 $1,008
9 3 2 $1,008 $64 (6.4%) $51 $1,060
10 2 1 $1,060 $15 (1.5%) ($7) $1,052
12 2 1 $1,052 $13 (1.3%) ($6) $1,046
13 2 0 $1,046 $23 (2.2%) ($23) $1,023


We have just one bet this week. We are betting 1.7% of our bankroll on the Jaguars to cover against the Vikings.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Vikings @ Jaguars 22 7 -15 -1.2 Jaguars 53.2% 1.7%

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