Saturday, December 3, 2016

Turnover Index Week 13

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Once again, we went 1-1 with our Week 12 bets, and our bankroll dropped by $6 from $1,052 to $1,046. We are now 6-4 against the spread on the season, with an ROI of 4.6%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
6 1 0 $1,000 $36 (3.6%) ($36) $963
7 1 1 $963 $10 (1.1%) $9 $973
8 1 1 $973 $38 (4.0%) $35 $1,008
9 3 2 $1,008 $64 (6.4%) $51 $1,060
10 2 1 $1,060 $15 (1.5%) ($7) $1,052
12 2 1 $1,052 $13 (1.3%) ($6) $1,046


We have two bets this week. We are betting 1.4% of our bankroll on the Jaguars to cover against the Broncos and 0.9% on the Falcons to cover against the Chiefs.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Broncos @ Jaguars 20 7 -13 -1.2 Jaguars 53.0% 1.4%
Chiefs @ Falcons 24 12 -12 -1.1 Falcons 52.8% 0.9%

No comments:

Post a Comment