Sunday, September 11, 2016

NFL Playoff Implications - Week 1

Playoff implications return for the 2016 season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the Thursday night season opener have already been taken into account.

Ranking Week 1 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 1 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
OAK @ NO 26.7%
NYG @ DAL 24.6%
MIN @ TEN 22.0%
BUF @ BAL 19.3%
CIN @ NYJ 18.9%
PIT @ WAS 18.1%
DET @ IND 17.3%
SD @ KC 16.6%
TB @ ATL 15.8%
NE @ ARZ 15.3%
CHI @ HOU 14.9%
GB @ JAC 14.3%
MIA @ SEA 10.8%
STL @ SF 4.1%
CLE @ PHI 2.2%

This week's highest leverage game is a cross-conference matchup between the Saints and the Raiders.

Beyond Week 1

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 2-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
2 KC @ HOU 27.1%
5 HOU @ MIN 25.8%
6 BAL @ NYG 25.2%
14 HOU @ IND 25.0%
12 CAR @ OAK 24.9%
6 CAR @ NO 24.7%
11 BAL @ DAL 24.7%
7 NO @ KC 24.5%
6 IND @ HOU 24.4%
6 KC @ OAK 24.3%

Week 1 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 1. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
NYG @ DAL 49.7% NYG 64.8% 76.3% 53.0% -23.3% 11.7%
NYG @ DAL 49.7% DAL 34.3% 22.9% 45.9% 23.1% 11.5%
SD @ KC 71.7% KC 47.4% 32.3% 53.3% 21.0% 9.5%
BUF @ BAL 60.4% BUF 33.3% 44.9% 25.7% -19.1% 9.4%
CIN @ NYJ 41.3% CIN 75.2% 82.4% 64.8% -17.6% 8.7%
BUF @ BAL 60.4% BAL 29.7% 19.3% 36.5% 17.3% 8.4%
CIN @ NYJ 41.3% NYJ 25.9% 18.9% 35.8% 16.9% 8.3%
OAK @ NO 55.2% OAK 53.8% 62.3% 46.8% -15.5% 7.7%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% MIN 50.0% 56.2% 40.9% -15.3% 7.5%
OAK @ NO 55.2% NO 38.2% 30.3% 44.6% 14.4% 7.1%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% WAS 36.4% 30.8% 45.0% 14.3% 7.0%
TB @ ATL 58.7% TB 19.1% 27.4% 13.3% -14.1% 7.0%
CHI @ HOU 70.3% HOU 56.4% 46.0% 60.8% 14.8% 6.8%
DET @ IND 60.5% IND 30.5% 22.4% 35.8% 13.4% 6.6%
SD @ KC 71.7% SD 13.7% 23.8% 9.7% -14.1% 6.4%
TB @ ATL 58.7% ATL 17.3% 9.7% 22.6% 12.9% 6.4%
NE @ ARZ 73.2% NE 73.3% 81.9% 70.1% -11.7% 5.2%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% TEN 18.6% 14.3% 24.7% 10.3% 5.1%
NE @ ARZ 73.2% ARZ 80.7% 72.3% 83.7% 11.4% 5.1%
GB @ JAC 32.7% GB 81.3% 84.7% 74.2% -10.5% 4.9%
MIA @ SEA 80.5% SEA 78.9% 69.1% 81.2% 12.1% 4.8%
DET @ IND 60.5% DET 13.0% 18.2% 9.6% -8.7% 4.2%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% PIT 88.1% 91.5% 82.9% -8.6% 4.2%
GB @ JAC 32.7% JAC 13.1% 10.3% 18.8% 8.5% 4.0%
STL @ SF 41.4% STL 7.6% 10.2% 3.9% -6.3% 3.1%
CHI @ HOU 70.3% CHI 9.0% 13.5% 7.2% -6.3% 2.9%
MIA @ SEA 80.5% MIA 8.2% 13.8% 6.8% -7.0% 2.8%
DET @ IND 60.5% HOU 56.4% 59.4% 54.4% -4.9% 2.4%
CHI @ HOU 70.3% IND 30.5% 33.6% 29.2% -4.4% 2.0%
OAK @ NO 55.2% CAR 65.2% 67.4% 63.4% -4.0% 2.0%
OAK @ NO 55.2% KC 47.4% 45.3% 49.1% 3.8% 1.9%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% NYG 64.8% 66.1% 62.6% -3.5% 1.7%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% HOU 56.4% 57.8% 54.4% -3.4% 1.7%
CHI @ HOU 70.3% TEN 18.6% 21.0% 17.6% -3.5% 1.6%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% DAL 34.3% 35.5% 32.6% -2.9% 1.4%
CLE @ PHI 62.3% PHI 4.0% 2.2% 5.1% 2.9% 1.4%
GB @ JAC 32.7% MIN 50.0% 49.0% 51.9% 2.9% 1.4%
OAK @ NO 55.2% DEN 31.7% 30.3% 32.8% 2.4% 1.2%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% GB 81.3% 80.3% 82.7% 2.5% 1.2%
DET @ IND 60.5% TEN 18.6% 20.1% 17.6% -2.5% 1.2%
NE @ ARZ 73.2% BUF 33.3% 31.5% 34.0% 2.5% 1.1%
GB @ JAC 32.7% HOU 56.4% 57.2% 54.9% -2.3% 1.1%
CHI @ HOU 70.3% JAC 13.1% 14.7% 12.4% -2.3% 1.0%
OAK @ NO 55.2% BAL 29.7% 28.6% 30.6% 2.0% 1.0%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% IND 30.5% 31.3% 29.3% -2.0% 1.0%
NE @ ARZ 73.2% WAS 36.4% 38.0% 35.8% -2.2% 1.0%
NE @ ARZ 73.2% NYJ 25.9% 24.3% 26.4% 2.2% 1.0%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% TB 19.1% 18.3% 20.2% 1.8% 0.9%
DET @ IND 60.5% JAC 13.1% 14.2% 12.4% -1.8% 0.9%
TB @ ATL 58.7% HOU 56.4% 57.4% 55.7% -1.8% 0.9%
MIA @ SEA 80.5% MIN 50.0% 51.7% 49.5% -2.2% 0.9%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% WAS 36.4% 35.7% 37.4% 1.7% 0.9%
OAK @ NO 55.2% TB 19.1% 20.0% 18.3% -1.7% 0.8%
CIN @ NYJ 41.3% NE 73.3% 74.0% 72.3% -1.6% 0.8%
CLE @ PHI 62.3% CLE 1.4% 2.4% 0.8% -1.6% 0.8%
DET @ IND 60.5% MIN 50.0% 49.0% 50.6% 1.6% 0.8%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% BAL 29.7% 29.1% 30.6% 1.6% 0.8%
SD @ KC 71.7% OAK 53.8% 55.0% 53.3% -1.7% 0.8%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% ARZ 80.7% 80.0% 81.6% 1.5% 0.8%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% GB 81.3% 81.9% 80.3% -1.5% 0.8%
OAK @ NO 55.2% MIN 50.0% 50.8% 49.3% -1.5% 0.7%
STL @ SF 41.4% SEA 78.9% 78.2% 79.7% 1.5% 0.7%
OAK @ NO 55.2% ATL 17.3% 18.1% 16.6% -1.5% 0.7%
MIA @ SEA 80.5% ARZ 80.7% 82.1% 80.3% -1.8% 0.7%
NE @ ARZ 73.2% NO 38.2% 39.4% 37.8% -1.6% 0.7%
OAK @ NO 55.2% BUF 33.3% 32.5% 33.9% 1.4% 0.7%
BUF @ BAL 60.4% NE 73.3% 72.4% 73.8% 1.4% 0.7%
OAK @ NO 55.2% SEA 78.9% 79.6% 78.2% -1.4% 0.7%
OAK @ NO 55.2% SD 13.7% 12.9% 14.3% 1.4% 0.7%
OAK @ NO 55.2% NYJ 25.9% 25.1% 26.5% 1.4% 0.7%
TB @ ATL 58.7% NYJ 25.9% 25.0% 26.4% 1.4% 0.7%
NE @ ARZ 73.2% SEA 78.9% 79.9% 78.5% -1.5% 0.7%
DET @ IND 60.5% NYG 64.8% 63.9% 65.3% 1.4% 0.7%
NYG @ DAL 49.7% WAS 36.4% 35.7% 37.1% 1.3% 0.7%
GB @ JAC 32.7% TEN 18.6% 19.0% 17.6% -1.4% 0.7%
CHI @ HOU 70.3% BUF 33.3% 34.3% 32.9% -1.4% 0.6%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% ATL 17.3% 16.7% 18.0% 1.3% 0.6%
GB @ JAC 32.7% OAK 53.8% 54.2% 52.9% -1.3% 0.6%
MIA @ SEA 80.5% BUF 33.3% 32.0% 33.6% 1.6% 0.6%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% DET 13.0% 12.5% 13.7% 1.2% 0.6%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% CHI 9.0% 8.5% 9.8% 1.2% 0.6%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% KC 47.4% 46.9% 48.1% 1.2% 0.6%
CIN @ NYJ 41.3% BUF 33.3% 33.8% 32.6% -1.2% 0.6%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% DAL 34.3% 33.8% 35.1% 1.2% 0.6%
OAK @ NO 55.2% PIT 88.1% 87.4% 88.6% 1.2% 0.6%
GB @ JAC 32.7% DAL 34.3% 33.9% 35.2% 1.2% 0.6%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% ARZ 80.7% 81.1% 79.9% -1.2% 0.6%
GB @ JAC 32.7% IND 30.5% 30.9% 29.7% -1.2% 0.6%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% CIN 75.2% 74.7% 75.9% 1.2% 0.6%
MIA @ SEA 80.5% NE 73.3% 72.1% 73.6% 1.4% 0.6%
GB @ JAC 32.7% CHI 9.0% 8.6% 9.8% 1.2% 0.6%
DET @ IND 60.5% GB 81.3% 80.6% 81.7% 1.1% 0.5%
MIN @ TEN 41.0% JAC 13.1% 13.5% 12.5% -1.1% 0.5%
PIT @ WAS 39.4% TB 19.1% 19.5% 18.5% -1.1% 0.5%
NE @ ARZ 73.2% MIA 8.2% 7.4% 8.5% 1.1% 0.5%
CIN @ NYJ 41.3% TEN 18.6% 18.2% 19.2% 1.0% 0.5%
NYG @ DAL 49.7% ARZ 80.7% 81.2% 80.2% -1.0% 0.5%
TB @ ATL 58.7% JAC 13.1% 12.5% 13.5% 1.0% 0.5%
TB @ ATL 58.7% ARZ 80.7% 80.1% 81.1% 1.0% 0.5%
BUF @ BAL 60.4% ATL 17.3% 17.8% 16.9% -1.0% 0.5%
MIA @ SEA 80.5% STL 7.6% 8.5% 7.4% -1.2% 0.5%
BUF @ BAL 60.4% MIA 8.2% 7.8% 8.5% 0.7% 0.3%
NYG @ DAL 49.7% PHI 4.0% 3.8% 4.3% 0.5% 0.3%
STL @ SF 41.4% SF 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%
NE @ ARZ 73.2% CLE 1.4% 1.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
OAK @ NO 55.2% SF 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

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