Wednesday, January 6, 2016

The Vegas Playoffs

Inspired by numbers shared by Cousin Sal on Monday's Bill Simmons podcast (and idle curiosity), I decided to reseed the NFL playoff field according to record against the spread, as opposed to win-loss record. There is literally no point to this exercise, but when you have spent hours coding the NFL's excessively redundant tiebreaking procedures like I have, you're on the lookout for any way to justify your time down in that hole.

Here is the AFC Vegas playoff field:


AFC EAST
rank team record pct seed
1  NYJ 9-6-1 0.594 2
2  NE 8-7-1 0.531 6
3  BUF 7-8-1 0.469
4  MIA 5-11-0 0.313
AFC NORTH
rank team record pct seed
1  CIN 12-3-1 0.781 1
2  PIT 8-6-2 0.563 5
3  BAL 6-9-1 0.406
4  CLE 6-10-0 0.375
AFC SOUTH
rank team record pct seed
1  HOU 9-7-0 0.563 3
2  IND 8-8-0 0.500
3  JAC 7-9-0 0.438
4  TEN 6-10-0 0.375
AFC WEST
rank team record pct seed
1  DEN 7-7-2 0.500 4
2  OAK 8-8-0 0.500
3  KC 8-8-0 0.500
4  SD 8-8-0 0.500

Five of the six playoff teams remain unchanged, with the Chiefs getting swapped out in favor of the Jets, who are now the two seed. The Patriots are now a wild card and the six seed. The Broncos drop to a four seed, with the Bengals taking their place as the top seed.

The AFC West is a four way tie, with all teams 0.500 against the spread. The Broncos emerge on top by virtue of having the best record in common games.

And here is the NFC field:


NFC EAST
rank team record pct seed
1  WAS 9-7-0 0.563 3
2  NYG 8-7-1 0.531
3  PHI 7-9-0 0.438
4  DAL 4-11-1 0.281
NFC NORTH
rank team record pct seed
1  MIN 13-3-0 0.813 1
2  GB 9-7-0 0.563 5
3  CHI 7-8-1 0.469
4  DET 7-9-0 0.438
NFC SOUTH
rank team record pct seed
1  CAR 11-5-0 0.688 2
2  NO 8-7-1 0.531 6
3  TB 7-9-0 0.438
4  ATL 6-10-0 0.375
NFC WEST
rank team record pct seed
1  ARZ 9-7-0 0.563 4
2  SEA 8-7-1 0.531
3  STL 7-9-0 0.438
4  SF 7-9-0 0.438

As with the AFC, five of the six actual playoff teams make it in the Vegas version, with Seattle out and New Orleans in. Carolina still gets a first round bye, but Minnesota gets the top seed.

If draft order was based on these results, the Dallas Cowboys would be picking first in the 2016 draft.

1 comment:

  1. Awesome stuff, especially in the light of this weekend's results.

    ReplyDelete