Saturday, December 26, 2015

NFL Playoff Implications Week 16

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 16 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the three Thanksgiving games have already been taken into account in the tables below.

Ranking Week 16 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 16 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
WAS @ PHI 69.1%
NE @ NYJ 37.0%
HOU @ TEN 21.9%
PIT @ BAL 18.4%
CLE @ KC 17.1%
NYG @ MIN 17.0%
CIN @ DEN 15.9%
JAC @ NO 4.1%
STL @ SEA 0.9%
CAR @ ATL 0.6%
CHI @ TB 0.2%
DAL @ BUF 0.0%
GB @ ARZ 0.0%
IND @ MIA 0.0%
SF @ DET 0.0%

Looking ahead to week 17

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 16-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
17 PHI @ NYG 37.6%
17 NYJ @ BUF 35.6%
17 WAS @ DAL 35.1%
17 JAC @ HOU 23.7%
17 SD @ DEN 20.0%
17 PIT @ CLE 17.6%
17 OAK @ KC 16.4%
17 TEN @ IND 10.1%
17 SEA @ ARZ 0.4%
17 NO @ ATL 0.3%

Week 16 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 15. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
WAS @ PHI 60.3% WAS 57.4% 100.0% 29.4% -70.6% 34.5%
WAS @ PHI 60.3% PHI 37.4% 0.0% 61.9% 61.9% 30.3%
NE @ NYJ 39.1% NYJ 22.0% 7.2% 45.1% 37.9% 18.5%
HOU @ TEN 33.2% HOU 92.1% 99.8% 76.5% -23.3% 11.0%
PIT @ BAL 19.7% PIT 92.5% 97.1% 73.9% -23.2% 9.2%
HOU @ TEN 33.2% IND 6.3% 0.2% 18.7% 18.4% 8.7%
CLE @ KC 81.6% KC 93.1% 75.2% 97.2% 22.0% 8.5%
NYG @ MIN 71.5% NYG 5.2% 18.3% 0.0% -18.3% 8.3%
NYG @ MIN 71.5% PHI 37.4% 24.5% 42.5% 18.0% 8.1%
CIN @ DEN 60.9% DEN 92.3% 82.6% 98.6% 16.0% 7.8%
CIN @ DEN 60.9% NYJ 22.0% 30.9% 16.3% -14.5% 7.1%
NE @ NYJ 39.1% PIT 92.5% 98.2% 83.7% -14.5% 7.1%
CLE @ KC 81.6% NYJ 22.0% 35.0% 19.1% -15.9% 6.2%
NE @ NYJ 39.1% KC 93.1% 97.9% 85.8% -12.1% 5.9%
NE @ NYJ 39.1% DEN 92.3% 96.8% 85.4% -11.4% 5.5%
PIT @ BAL 19.7% NYJ 22.0% 19.4% 32.8% 13.4% 5.3%
WAS @ PHI 60.3% NYG 5.2% 0.0% 8.7% 8.7% 4.2%
HOU @ TEN 33.2% JAC 1.6% 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 2.3%
JAC @ NO 60.5% HOU 92.1% 89.4% 93.8% 4.4% 2.2%
PIT @ BAL 19.7% KC 93.1% 92.1% 97.2% 5.1% 2.0%
JAC @ NO 60.5% JAC 1.6% 4.1% 0.0% -4.1% 2.0%
PIT @ BAL 19.7% DEN 92.3% 91.4% 96.1% 4.7% 1.9%
CLE @ KC 81.6% DEN 92.3% 96.2% 91.5% -4.8% 1.8%
CLE @ KC 81.6% PIT 92.5% 93.6% 92.2% -1.4% 0.5%
STL @ SEA 87.2% SEA 99.8% 98.6% 100.0% 1.4% 0.5%
STL @ SEA 87.2% ATL 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% -1.4% 0.5%
CIN @ DEN 60.9% PIT 92.5% 93.0% 92.2% -0.8% 0.4%
CIN @ DEN 60.9% KC 93.1% 93.6% 92.9% -0.7% 0.3%
CIN @ DEN 60.9% HOU 92.1% 92.5% 91.8% -0.7% 0.3%
CAR @ ATL 26.9% ATL 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
CAR @ ATL 26.9% SEA 99.8% 100.0% 99.3% -0.7% 0.3%
NYG @ MIN 71.5% SEA 99.8% 99.4% 100.0% 0.6% 0.3%
NYG @ MIN 71.5% ATL 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% -0.6% 0.3%
CHI @ TB 60.3% JAC 1.6% 1.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2%

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