Sunday, December 13, 2015

NFL Playoff Implications Week 14

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 14 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the three Thanksgiving games have already been taken into account in the tables below.

Ranking Week 14 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 14 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
BUF @ PHI 42.3%
PIT @ CIN 39.8%
NYG @ MIA 24.7%
IND @ JAC 24.2%
TEN @ NYJ 24.0%
DAL @ GB 20.8%
NO @ TB 20.7%
NE @ HOU 18.8%
WAS @ CHI 18.5%
ATL @ CAR 15.5%
SD @ KC 14.8%
SEA @ BAL 7.6%
OAK @ DEN 2.1%
DET @ STL 0.2%
SF @ CLE 0.0%

Beyond Week 14

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 15-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
15 HOU @ IND 63.2%
16 WAS @ PHI 50.7%
16 NYG @ MIN 45.5%
17 PHI @ NYG 45.2%
17 NYJ @ BUF 44.4%
15 BUF @ WAS 36.4%
15 DEN @ PIT 35.8%
15 CHI @ MIN 33.2%
16 NE @ NYJ 33.0%
16 PIT @ BAL 32.1%

Week 14 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 14. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
PIT @ CIN 58.9% PIT 54.8% 78.4% 38.3% -40.1% 19.7%
IND @ JAC 49.9% IND 59.4% 71.8% 47.0% -24.8% 12.4%
NYG @ MIA 46.7% NYG 27.6% 39.2% 14.4% -24.8% 12.4%
TEN @ NYJ 73.1% NYJ 33.5% 13.3% 40.9% 27.6% 12.2%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% PHI 43.7% 31.8% 55.5% 23.6% 11.8%
IND @ JAC 49.9% HOU 40.8% 29.9% 51.7% 21.9% 10.9%
NO @ TB 65.3% TB 20.2% 5.7% 27.9% 22.2% 10.6%
NE @ HOU 38.1% HOU 40.8% 33.4% 52.8% 19.4% 9.4%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% BUF 19.0% 28.3% 9.6% -18.6% 9.3%
PIT @ CIN 58.9% BUF 19.0% 8.7% 26.1% 17.4% 8.6%
NE @ HOU 38.1% IND 59.4% 65.6% 49.4% -16.2% 7.9%
PIT @ CIN 58.9% NYJ 33.5% 24.2% 40.0% 15.8% 7.8%
ATL @ CAR 74.9% ATL 6.2% 19.3% 1.8% -17.5% 7.6%
SD @ KC 81.9% KC 91.6% 75.5% 95.1% 19.7% 7.6%
WAS @ CHI 62.2% WAS 22.2% 31.8% 16.4% -15.3% 7.4%
TEN @ NYJ 73.1% PIT 54.8% 66.3% 50.6% -15.7% 6.9%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% NYG 27.6% 34.2% 21.0% -13.2% 6.6%
DAL @ GB 73.2% DAL 7.4% 17.4% 3.7% -13.7% 6.1%
NO @ TB 65.3% MIN 78.0% 86.1% 73.7% -12.4% 5.9%
NYG @ MIA 46.7% PHI 43.7% 38.3% 49.8% 11.5% 5.8%
DAL @ GB 73.2% GB 95.0% 87.2% 97.9% 10.7% 4.7%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% PIT 54.8% 50.5% 59.2% 8.7% 4.4%
SEA @ BAL 15.7% SEA 95.0% 96.7% 85.5% -11.2% 4.1%
NYG @ MIA 46.7% WAS 22.2% 19.1% 25.8% 6.7% 3.4%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% WAS 22.2% 25.5% 18.9% -6.6% 3.3%
SD @ KC 81.9% NYJ 33.5% 40.4% 32.0% -8.5% 3.3%
WAS @ CHI 62.2% PHI 43.7% 39.6% 46.1% 6.5% 3.2%
NYG @ MIA 46.7% DAL 7.4% 4.6% 10.5% 5.9% 3.0%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% NYJ 33.5% 30.6% 36.4% 5.8% 2.9%
SD @ KC 81.9% PIT 54.8% 60.3% 53.6% -6.7% 2.6%
PIT @ CIN 58.9% KC 91.6% 88.6% 93.6% 5.0% 2.5%
WAS @ CHI 62.2% CHI 4.2% 1.0% 6.1% 5.1% 2.5%
WAS @ CHI 62.2% NYG 27.6% 24.5% 29.5% 5.0% 2.4%
DAL @ GB 73.2% TB 20.2% 24.0% 18.8% -5.1% 2.3%
ATL @ CAR 74.9% MIN 78.0% 74.2% 79.3% 5.2% 2.2%
DAL @ GB 73.2% PHI 43.7% 40.0% 45.0% 5.0% 2.2%
TEN @ NYJ 73.1% KC 91.6% 95.0% 90.3% -4.8% 2.1%
TEN @ NYJ 73.1% BUF 19.0% 22.4% 17.7% -4.7% 2.1%
DAL @ GB 73.2% NYG 27.6% 24.4% 28.8% 4.4% 2.0%
SEA @ BAL 15.7% TB 20.2% 19.4% 24.6% 5.2% 1.9%
WAS @ CHI 62.2% MIN 78.0% 80.5% 76.6% -3.9% 1.9%
DAL @ GB 73.2% WAS 22.2% 19.3% 23.3% 4.0% 1.8%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% DAL 7.4% 9.1% 5.6% -3.4% 1.7%
ATL @ CAR 74.9% GB 95.0% 92.1% 96.0% 3.9% 1.7%
NO @ TB 65.3% SEA 95.0% 97.0% 93.9% -3.1% 1.5%
NO @ TB 65.3% GB 95.0% 97.0% 93.9% -3.1% 1.5%
ATL @ CAR 74.9% SEA 95.0% 92.4% 95.8% 3.4% 1.5%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% KC 91.6% 90.2% 92.9% 2.8% 1.4%
ATL @ CAR 74.9% TB 20.2% 18.0% 21.0% 2.9% 1.3%
DAL @ GB 73.2% ATL 6.2% 8.2% 5.5% -2.7% 1.2%
WAS @ CHI 62.2% DAL 7.4% 5.9% 8.2% 2.3% 1.1%
SD @ KC 81.9% BUF 19.0% 21.2% 18.4% -2.8% 1.1%
NO @ TB 65.3% ATL 6.2% 7.4% 5.6% -1.8% 0.9%
OAK @ DEN 73.1% DEN 99.4% 98.0% 100.0% 1.9% 0.9%
PIT @ CIN 58.9% HOU 40.8% 39.8% 41.5% 1.7% 0.8%
IND @ JAC 49.9% JAC 0.8% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 0.8%
NE @ HOU 38.1% NYJ 33.5% 34.1% 32.5% -1.6% 0.8%
OAK @ DEN 73.1% OAK 0.5% 1.7% 0.0% -1.7% 0.7%
SEA @ BAL 15.7% ATL 6.2% 5.9% 7.9% 2.0% 0.7%
SEA @ BAL 15.7% GB 95.0% 94.7% 96.6% 1.9% 0.7%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% HOU 40.8% 40.1% 41.4% 1.3% 0.7%
ATL @ CAR 74.9% PHI 43.7% 42.6% 44.0% 1.5% 0.6%
ATL @ CAR 74.9% CHI 4.2% 3.1% 4.5% 1.3% 0.6%
NE @ HOU 38.1% JAC 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% -1.1% 0.5%
OAK @ DEN 73.1% BUF 19.0% 18.1% 19.3% 1.1% 0.5%
DAL @ GB 73.2% SEA 95.0% 95.7% 94.7% -1.0% 0.5%
NO @ TB 65.3% NO 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% -0.8% 0.4%
TEN @ NYJ 73.1% DEN 99.4% 99.9% 99.3% -0.6% 0.3%
SD @ KC 81.9% OAK 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% -0.6% 0.2%
NYG @ MIA 46.7% MIA 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
PIT @ CIN 58.9% DEN 99.4% 99.2% 99.6% 0.4% 0.2%
TEN @ NYJ 73.1% MIA 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% -0.4% 0.2%
DET @ STL 39.9% STL 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
SEA @ BAL 15.7% STL 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
PIT @ CIN 58.9% OAK 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
PIT @ CIN 58.9% MIA 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
TEN @ NYJ 73.1% OAK 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% -0.2% 0.1%
SD @ KC 81.9% DEN 99.4% 99.7% 99.4% -0.3% 0.1%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% MIA 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
NE @ HOU 38.1% DEN 99.4% 99.4% 99.6% 0.2% 0.1%
BUF @ PHI 50.0% OAK 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
SEA @ BAL 15.7% DET 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
DAL @ GB 73.2% NO 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% -0.2% 0.1%
TEN @ NYJ 73.1% TEN 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.1%
NE @ HOU 38.1% NE 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% -0.1% 0.1%
PIT @ CIN 58.9% NE 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 0.1% 0.1%
DET @ STL 39.9% DET 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.1%
IND @ JAC 49.9% TEN 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NE @ HOU 38.1% TEN 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%
TEN @ NYJ 73.1% NE 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% -0.1% 0.0%
PIT @ CIN 58.9% CIN 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

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