Sunday, December 6, 2015

NFL Playoff Implications Week 13

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 13 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the three Thanksgiving games have already been taken into account in the tables below.

Ranking Week 13 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 13 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
NYJ @ NYG 43.8%
HOU @ BUF 40.7%
SEA @ MIN 36.5%
IND @ PIT 35.3%
DAL @ WAS 31.1%
ATL @ TB 25.8%
KC @ OAK 22.5%
PHI @ NE 12.9%
SF @ CHI 6.9%
JAC @ TEN 4.7%
ARZ @ STL 3.7%
CAR @ NO 2.9%
DEN @ SD 1.1%
BAL @ MIA 0.7%
CIN @ CLE 0.2%

Beyond Week 13

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 14-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
15 HOU @ IND 56.8%
17 NYJ @ BUF 44.2%
15 BUF @ WAS 43.9%
16 WAS @ PHI 40.8%
17 WAS @ DAL 35.0%
17 PHI @ NYG 33.8%
15 DEN @ PIT 32.5%
16 NE @ NYJ 32.5%
14 BUF @ PHI 32.0%
16 STL @ SEA 31.5%

Week 13 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 13. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
SEA @ MIN 50.2% SEA 65.2% 83.8% 46.9% -36.9% 18.5%
DAL @ WAS 65.4% WAS 50.2% 28.4% 61.7% 33.3% 15.8%
IND @ PIT 73.2% PIT 38.7% 13.0% 48.1% 35.1% 15.5%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% HOU 49.8% 67.9% 38.0% -29.9% 14.6%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% BUF 22.3% 5.6% 33.2% 27.5% 13.5%
ATL @ TB 55.5% ATL 19.8% 34.5% 8.0% -26.5% 13.2%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% NYG 32.5% 22.2% 46.3% 24.1% 11.9%
KC @ OAK 39.0% KC 85.0% 94.4% 70.2% -24.2% 11.8%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% NYJ 36.3% 45.3% 24.2% -21.1% 10.4%
IND @ PIT 73.2% IND 58.2% 72.9% 52.9% -20.1% 8.9%
ATL @ TB 55.5% TB 12.1% 2.9% 19.5% 16.7% 8.3%
DAL @ WAS 65.4% NYG 32.5% 43.4% 26.8% -16.6% 7.9%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% WAS 50.2% 56.6% 41.5% -15.1% 7.5%
KC @ OAK 39.0% OAK 7.3% 1.8% 15.9% 14.2% 6.9%
PHI @ NE 79.7% PHI 16.2% 29.1% 12.9% -16.2% 6.5%
SEA @ MIN 50.2% MIN 92.9% 86.5% 99.1% 12.6% 6.3%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% IND 58.2% 50.5% 63.3% 12.7% 6.2%
SEA @ MIN 50.2% ATL 19.8% 14.9% 24.6% 9.7% 4.9%
SF @ CHI 74.2% CHI 8.8% 2.3% 11.1% 8.8% 3.9%
DAL @ WAS 65.4% DAL 2.9% 8.0% 0.1% -7.9% 3.8%
DAL @ WAS 65.4% PHI 16.2% 20.9% 13.7% -7.3% 3.5%
IND @ PIT 73.2% BUF 22.3% 27.8% 20.3% -7.5% 3.3%
PHI @ NE 79.7% WAS 50.2% 43.6% 51.8% 8.2% 3.3%
IND @ PIT 73.2% NYJ 36.3% 41.2% 34.5% -6.7% 3.0%
PHI @ NE 79.7% NYG 32.5% 27.2% 33.9% 6.7% 2.7%
KC @ OAK 39.0% PIT 38.7% 36.6% 41.9% 5.3% 2.6%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% PHI 16.2% 18.4% 13.2% -5.2% 2.6%
SEA @ MIN 50.2% TB 12.1% 9.6% 14.7% 5.1% 2.5%
JAC @ TEN 58.8% JAC 2.6% 5.6% 0.5% -5.2% 2.5%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% BUF 22.3% 20.1% 25.2% 5.1% 2.5%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% PIT 38.7% 36.6% 41.6% 5.0% 2.5%
ATL @ TB 55.5% SEA 65.2% 62.7% 67.3% 4.6% 2.3%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% PIT 38.7% 41.5% 36.9% -4.6% 2.3%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% NYJ 36.3% 39.0% 34.5% -4.5% 2.2%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% KC 85.0% 83.2% 87.4% 4.3% 2.1%
ARZ @ STL 29.9% STL 2.1% 0.8% 5.2% 4.3% 2.0%
IND @ PIT 73.2% HOU 49.8% 46.9% 50.8% 3.9% 1.7%
CAR @ NO 27.0% NO 1.1% 0.3% 3.4% 3.1% 1.4%
SEA @ MIN 50.2% CHI 8.8% 7.4% 10.2% 2.8% 1.4%
CAR @ NO 27.0% SEA 65.2% 66.0% 63.1% -2.9% 1.3%
SEA @ MIN 50.2% GB 95.8% 94.5% 97.0% 2.5% 1.3%
IND @ PIT 73.2% KC 85.0% 87.1% 84.2% -2.8% 1.3%
SF @ CHI 74.2% SEA 65.2% 67.3% 64.5% -2.8% 1.2%
JAC @ TEN 58.8% IND 58.2% 56.8% 59.3% 2.5% 1.2%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% DAL 2.9% 3.8% 1.5% -2.3% 1.1%
DEN @ SD 36.1% DEN 99.0% 99.8% 97.6% -2.2% 1.0%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% HOU 49.8% 48.9% 51.0% 2.1% 1.0%
KC @ OAK 39.0% NYJ 36.3% 35.5% 37.6% 2.0% 1.0%
ATL @ TB 55.5% CHI 8.8% 7.7% 9.7% 1.9% 1.0%
JAC @ TEN 58.8% HOU 49.8% 48.7% 50.6% 1.9% 0.9%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% OAK 7.3% 6.5% 8.4% 1.8% 0.9%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% IND 58.2% 57.5% 59.2% 1.7% 0.9%
IND @ PIT 73.2% OAK 7.3% 8.7% 6.8% -1.9% 0.9%
SF @ CHI 74.2% ATL 19.8% 21.3% 19.3% -1.9% 0.8%
SEA @ MIN 50.2% STL 2.1% 1.4% 2.8% 1.5% 0.7%
ARZ @ STL 29.9% SEA 65.2% 65.7% 64.2% -1.5% 0.7%
SF @ CHI 74.2% MIN 92.9% 94.0% 92.5% -1.5% 0.7%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% JAC 2.6% 1.8% 3.1% 1.3% 0.7%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% OAK 7.3% 8.0% 6.9% -1.1% 0.6%
ARZ @ STL 29.9% TB 12.1% 12.5% 11.3% -1.2% 0.5%
SEA @ MIN 50.2% DET 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5%
ATL @ TB 55.5% STL 2.1% 1.6% 2.5% 0.9% 0.5%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% KC 85.0% 85.5% 84.6% -0.9% 0.4%
SEA @ MIN 50.2% NO 1.1% 0.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4%
BAL @ MIA 62.2% BAL 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% -0.9% 0.4%
ATL @ TB 55.5% MIN 92.9% 92.4% 93.2% 0.8% 0.4%
PHI @ NE 79.7% DAL 2.9% 2.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4%
IND @ PIT 73.2% JAC 2.6% 2.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.4%
ARZ @ STL 29.9% ARZ 99.8% 100.0% 99.3% -0.7% 0.3%
IND @ PIT 73.2% DEN 99.0% 99.5% 98.8% -0.7% 0.3%
BAL @ MIA 62.2% MIA 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
SF @ CHI 74.2% GB 95.8% 96.2% 95.6% -0.6% 0.3%
CAR @ NO 27.0% GB 95.8% 95.9% 95.3% -0.6% 0.3%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% DEN 99.0% 98.8% 99.3% 0.4% 0.2%
KC @ OAK 39.0% DEN 99.0% 98.9% 99.3% 0.4% 0.2%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% DEN 99.0% 99.2% 98.9% -0.3% 0.2%
ATL @ TB 55.5% DET 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
NYJ @ NYG 42.7% MIA 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
ARZ @ STL 29.9% NO 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% -0.3% 0.1%
HOU @ BUF 60.5% MIA 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% -0.2% 0.1%
ATL @ TB 55.5% ARZ 99.8% 99.7% 99.8% 0.2% 0.1%
DAL @ WAS 65.4% BAL 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
DEN @ SD 36.1% SD 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
CIN @ CLE 20.6% CIN 100.0% 100.0% 99.8% -0.2% 0.1%
CIN @ CLE 20.6% BAL 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
SEA @ MIN 50.2% ARZ 99.8% 99.7% 99.8% 0.1% 0.1%
KC @ OAK 39.0% SD 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DAL @ WAS 65.4% SD 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

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