Saturday, November 28, 2015

NFL Playoff Implications Week 12

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 12 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the three Thanksgiving games have already been taken into account in the tables below.

Ranking Week 12 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 12 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
PIT @ SEA 47.7%
MIN @ ATL 39.8%
BUF @ KC 36.6%
NYG @ WAS 36.5%
TB @ IND 35.4%
NO @ HOU 19.9%
MIA @ NYJ 15.8%
SD @ JAC 7.5%
STL @ CIN 6.3%
OAK @ TEN 4.2%
NE @ DEN 2.5%
ARZ @ SF 0.8%
BAL @ CLE 0.1%

Beyond Week 12

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 13-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
15 HOU @ IND 49.9%
13 SEA @ MIN 46.8%
13 IND @ PIT 40.2%
13 HOU @ BUF 40.1%
17 PHI @ NYG 37.4%
13 ATL @ TB 35.0%
16 NYG @ MIN 34.9%
14 BUF @ PHI 34.1%
15 DEN @ PIT 33.5%
13 NYJ @ NYG 33.1%

Week 12 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 12. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
MIN @ ATL 53.9% ATL 48.2% 27.0% 66.4% 39.4% 19.6%
BUF @ KC 71.9% BUF 37.6% 67.6% 25.9% -41.7% 18.7%
NYG @ WAS 40.9% NYG 70.3% 85.4% 48.5% -36.9% 18.1%
BUF @ KC 71.9% KC 78.8% 52.5% 89.0% 36.5% 16.4%
MIN @ ATL 53.9% MIN 72.4% 88.5% 58.7% -29.8% 14.9%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% PIT 54.0% 70.4% 44.1% -26.2% 12.7%
NYG @ WAS 40.9% WAS 11.6% 1.6% 26.0% 24.4% 12.0%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% SEA 48.5% 33.8% 57.4% 23.6% 11.4%
TB @ IND 60.5% IND 60.8% 48.6% 68.8% 20.1% 9.8%
TB @ IND 60.5% TB 19.1% 29.9% 12.2% -17.7% 8.7%
NO @ HOU 60.7% HOU 35.7% 25.3% 42.5% 17.2% 8.4%
MIA @ NYJ 62.1% NYJ 17.4% 6.7% 24.0% 17.2% 8.4%
TB @ IND 60.5% HOU 35.7% 42.8% 31.0% -11.8% 5.8%
NO @ HOU 60.7% IND 60.8% 67.0% 56.8% -10.1% 4.9%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% BUF 37.6% 32.1% 41.0% 8.8% 4.3%
NYG @ WAS 40.9% PHI 15.2% 11.8% 20.1% 8.2% 4.1%
MIA @ NYJ 62.1% MIA 4.0% 9.1% 0.8% -8.3% 4.0%
SD @ JAC 63.5% JAC 9.6% 4.4% 12.6% 8.2% 4.0%
STL @ CIN 76.8% STL 4.3% 10.2% 2.5% -7.8% 3.3%
TB @ IND 60.5% ATL 48.2% 44.6% 50.6% 6.0% 2.9%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% KC 78.8% 75.2% 81.0% 5.8% 2.8%
OAK @ TEN 44.6% OAK 4.4% 6.8% 1.4% -5.3% 2.6%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% MIN 72.4% 75.7% 70.4% -5.3% 2.6%
NO @ HOU 60.7% NO 4.1% 7.1% 2.1% -5.0% 2.4%
SD @ JAC 63.5% IND 60.8% 63.9% 59.0% -4.9% 2.4%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% NYJ 17.4% 14.5% 19.2% 4.8% 2.3%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% ATL 48.2% 51.1% 46.4% -4.7% 2.3%
NYG @ WAS 40.9% DAL 3.7% 1.8% 6.4% 4.6% 2.3%
TB @ IND 60.5% JAC 9.6% 12.3% 7.9% -4.4% 2.2%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% CHI 9.9% 12.5% 8.4% -4.1% 2.0%
TB @ IND 60.5% SEA 48.5% 46.0% 50.0% 4.0% 2.0%
TB @ IND 60.5% MIN 72.4% 70.0% 74.0% 4.0% 1.9%
MIN @ ATL 53.9% SEA 48.5% 50.5% 46.7% -3.8% 1.9%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% TB 19.1% 21.4% 17.8% -3.7% 1.8%
MIA @ NYJ 62.1% PIT 54.0% 56.2% 52.7% -3.5% 1.7%
NE @ DEN 39.4% DEN 97.6% 96.3% 99.5% 3.2% 1.6%
NO @ HOU 60.7% JAC 9.6% 11.6% 8.4% -3.2% 1.6%
STL @ CIN 76.8% SEA 48.5% 45.7% 49.3% 3.5% 1.5%
MIN @ ATL 53.9% CHI 9.9% 11.3% 8.7% -2.6% 1.3%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% GB 91.9% 93.5% 91.0% -2.5% 1.2%
STL @ CIN 76.8% ATL 48.2% 46.1% 48.8% 2.7% 1.1%
NO @ HOU 60.7% ATL 48.2% 46.8% 49.1% 2.4% 1.1%
MIA @ NYJ 62.1% BUF 37.6% 39.1% 36.7% -2.4% 1.1%
NO @ HOU 60.7% PIT 54.0% 55.1% 53.3% -1.7% 0.8%
NE @ DEN 39.4% PIT 54.0% 54.7% 53.0% -1.7% 0.8%
TB @ IND 60.5% PIT 54.0% 55.0% 53.4% -1.7% 0.8%
OAK @ TEN 44.6% BUF 37.6% 36.9% 38.5% 1.6% 0.8%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% HOU 35.7% 34.7% 36.3% 1.6% 0.8%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% MIA 4.0% 3.0% 4.5% 1.6% 0.8%
ARZ @ SF 18.2% ARZ 99.3% 99.7% 97.8% -1.9% 0.7%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% OAK 4.4% 3.5% 4.9% 1.5% 0.7%
OAK @ TEN 44.6% KC 78.8% 78.1% 79.6% 1.4% 0.7%
TB @ IND 60.5% GB 91.9% 91.1% 92.5% 1.4% 0.7%
BUF @ KC 71.9% PIT 54.0% 53.0% 54.4% 1.4% 0.6%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% STL 4.3% 5.1% 3.8% -1.3% 0.6%
MIN @ ATL 53.9% STL 4.3% 4.9% 3.7% -1.2% 0.6%
SD @ JAC 63.5% HOU 35.7% 36.5% 35.2% -1.3% 0.6%
MIA @ NYJ 62.1% KC 78.8% 79.5% 78.3% -1.2% 0.6%
MIN @ ATL 53.9% NYG 70.3% 71.0% 69.8% -1.2% 0.6%
SD @ JAC 63.5% BUF 37.6% 38.4% 37.2% -1.2% 0.6%
NO @ HOU 60.7% GB 91.9% 91.3% 92.3% 1.1% 0.5%
MIN @ ATL 53.9% GB 91.9% 92.5% 91.5% -1.0% 0.5%
BUF @ KC 71.9% OAK 4.4% 3.7% 4.7% 1.0% 0.4%
TB @ IND 60.5% CHI 9.9% 9.4% 10.3% 0.9% 0.4%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% JAC 9.6% 9.1% 10.0% 0.9% 0.4%
BUF @ KC 71.9% MIA 4.0% 3.3% 4.2% 0.9% 0.4%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% NO 4.1% 4.6% 3.8% -0.8% 0.4%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% DET 1.4% 1.9% 1.1% -0.7% 0.4%
PIT @ SEA 62.2% DEN 97.6% 97.2% 97.8% 0.6% 0.3%
MIN @ ATL 53.9% DET 1.4% 1.7% 1.2% -0.5% 0.2%
STL @ CIN 76.8% NO 4.1% 3.7% 4.2% 0.5% 0.2%
TB @ IND 60.5% DET 1.4% 1.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2%
MIN @ ATL 53.9% ARZ 99.3% 99.5% 99.2% -0.3% 0.1%
NE @ DEN 39.4% DET 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
STL @ CIN 76.8% CIN 99.9% 99.6% 100.0% 0.3% 0.1%
BAL @ CLE 59.3% BAL 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1%
OAK @ TEN 44.6% TEN 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
TB @ IND 60.5% TEN 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.1%
NO @ HOU 60.7% TEN 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%
ARZ @ SF 18.2% SF 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

No comments:

Post a Comment