Saturday, November 21, 2015

NFL Playoff Implications Week 11

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 11 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 11 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 10 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
NYJ @ HOU 38.8%
IND @ ATL 33.2%
KC @ SD 26.3%
TB @ PHI 23.7%
BUF @ NE 23.2%
GB @ MIN 20.4%
DEN @ CHI 14.6%
SF @ SEA 14.2%
WAS @ CAR 13.0%
DAL @ MIA 8.5%
OAK @ DET 8.0%
STL @ BAL 7.8%
CIN @ ARZ 4.0%

Beyond Week 11

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 12-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
17 PHI @ NYG 48.9%
12 PIT @ SEA 46.1%
15 HOU @ IND 43.9%
13 NYJ @ NYG 41.5%
13 IND @ PIT 41.5%
14 BUF @ PHI 41.1%
12 BUF @ KC 38.8%
12 NYG @ WAS 36.8%
13 HOU @ BUF 35.4%
14 IND @ JAC 35.3%

Week 11 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 11. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
KC @ SD 39.0% KC 52.3% 62.8% 35.9% -26.9% 13.1%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% NYJ 33.2% 42.7% 18.2% -24.5% 12.0%
BUF @ NE 72.9% BUF 52.2% 71.5% 45.0% -26.5% 11.8%
GB @ MIN 53.4% MIN 82.8% 72.1% 92.1% 20.0% 10.0%
TB @ PHI 68.4% PHI 38.3% 24.3% 44.8% 20.5% 9.5%
GB @ MIN 53.4% GB 83.3% 93.5% 74.5% -19.0% 9.5%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% HOU 27.3% 20.1% 38.5% 18.4% 9.0%
IND @ ATL 68.9% IND 56.8% 69.5% 51.1% -18.4% 8.5%
IND @ ATL 68.9% ATL 77.2% 64.7% 82.8% 18.1% 8.4%
SF @ SEA 86.0% SEA 30.0% 11.3% 33.0% 21.8% 7.6%
WAS @ CAR 74.0% WAS 16.4% 27.7% 12.5% -15.2% 6.7%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% IND 56.8% 60.9% 50.4% -10.5% 5.1%
TB @ PHI 68.4% NYG 47.7% 54.6% 44.5% -10.1% 4.7%
TB @ PHI 68.4% TB 6.5% 13.4% 3.3% -10.1% 4.7%
STL @ BAL 58.8% STL 8.0% 13.4% 4.2% -9.2% 4.5%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% DEN 91.7% 95.6% 87.2% -8.3% 4.2%
OAK @ DET 50.4% OAK 9.1% 13.3% 5.0% -8.3% 4.2%
IND @ ATL 68.9% HOU 27.3% 21.2% 30.0% 8.8% 4.1%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% CHI 6.4% 2.9% 10.5% 7.7% 3.8%
KC @ SD 39.0% PIT 53.2% 50.2% 57.8% 7.6% 3.7%
IND @ ATL 68.9% JAC 18.1% 12.8% 20.4% 7.6% 3.5%
BUF @ NE 72.9% PIT 53.2% 47.5% 55.2% 7.7% 3.4%
BUF @ NE 72.9% NYJ 33.2% 27.7% 35.2% 7.5% 3.3%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% PIT 53.2% 50.5% 57.3% 6.8% 3.3%
DAL @ MIA 46.5% MIA 5.5% 2.5% 9.1% 6.6% 3.3%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% BUF 52.2% 50.0% 55.6% 5.6% 2.7%
IND @ ATL 68.9% SEA 30.0% 34.0% 28.2% -5.8% 2.7%
WAS @ CAR 74.0% NYG 47.7% 43.3% 49.3% 5.9% 2.6%
WAS @ CAR 74.0% PHI 38.3% 34.1% 39.8% 5.8% 2.5%
KC @ SD 39.0% NYJ 33.2% 31.2% 36.2% 5.0% 2.4%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% KC 52.3% 50.4% 55.3% 4.8% 2.4%
BUF @ NE 72.9% KC 52.3% 48.5% 53.8% 5.3% 2.3%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% JAC 18.1% 19.9% 15.2% -4.7% 2.3%
KC @ SD 39.0% DEN 91.7% 90.0% 94.4% 4.4% 2.1%
TB @ PHI 68.4% WAS 16.4% 19.4% 15.0% -4.3% 2.0%
KC @ SD 39.0% BUF 52.2% 50.6% 54.6% 4.0% 1.9%
SF @ SEA 86.0% ATL 77.2% 81.7% 76.4% -5.3% 1.9%
DAL @ MIA 46.5% DAL 2.9% 4.6% 1.0% -3.6% 1.8%
CIN @ ARZ 65.7% ARZ 97.2% 94.7% 98.5% 3.8% 1.8%
OAK @ DET 50.4% KC 52.3% 50.8% 53.8% 3.0% 1.5%
IND @ ATL 68.9% STL 8.0% 10.1% 7.1% -3.0% 1.4%
STL @ BAL 58.8% SEA 30.0% 28.4% 31.1% 2.7% 1.3%
KC @ SD 39.0% OAK 9.1% 8.1% 10.7% 2.6% 1.3%
SF @ SEA 86.0% MIN 82.8% 86.0% 82.3% -3.7% 1.3%
SF @ SEA 86.0% GB 83.3% 86.3% 82.9% -3.4% 1.2%
STL @ BAL 58.8% ATL 77.2% 75.8% 78.1% 2.3% 1.1%
TB @ PHI 68.4% ATL 77.2% 75.5% 77.9% 2.4% 1.1%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% GB 83.3% 84.4% 82.2% -2.2% 1.1%
DAL @ MIA 46.5% KC 52.3% 53.3% 51.1% -2.2% 1.1%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% PIT 53.2% 52.2% 54.3% 2.1% 1.0%
CIN @ ARZ 65.7% SEA 30.0% 31.4% 29.2% -2.1% 1.0%
IND @ ATL 68.9% TB 6.5% 7.9% 5.9% -2.1% 1.0%
OAK @ DET 50.4% PIT 53.2% 52.2% 54.1% 1.9% 0.9%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% BUF 52.2% 51.3% 53.2% 1.9% 0.9%
DAL @ MIA 46.5% PIT 53.2% 54.0% 52.2% -1.7% 0.9%
GB @ MIN 53.4% SEA 30.0% 30.9% 29.2% -1.7% 0.9%
TB @ PHI 68.4% SEA 30.0% 28.7% 30.6% 1.8% 0.9%
TB @ PHI 68.4% DAL 2.9% 4.1% 2.3% -1.8% 0.8%
BUF @ NE 72.9% MIA 5.5% 4.3% 6.0% 1.7% 0.8%
DAL @ MIA 46.5% NYG 47.7% 47.0% 48.5% 1.5% 0.8%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% OAK 9.1% 8.4% 9.9% 1.5% 0.7%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% MIA 5.5% 5.0% 6.5% 1.5% 0.7%
BUF @ NE 72.9% OAK 9.1% 7.9% 9.6% 1.6% 0.7%
KC @ SD 39.0% MIA 5.5% 5.0% 6.4% 1.4% 0.7%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% OAK 9.1% 8.6% 10.0% 1.4% 0.7%
IND @ ATL 68.9% NYG 47.7% 48.7% 47.3% -1.4% 0.7%
BUF @ NE 72.9% DEN 91.7% 90.6% 92.1% 1.5% 0.7%
WAS @ CAR 74.0% SEA 30.0% 28.9% 30.4% 1.5% 0.7%
IND @ ATL 68.9% CHI 6.4% 7.4% 6.0% -1.4% 0.7%
DAL @ MIA 46.5% WAS 16.4% 15.8% 17.1% 1.3% 0.6%
IND @ ATL 68.9% MIN 82.8% 83.7% 82.4% -1.3% 0.6%
CIN @ ARZ 65.7% KC 52.3% 51.5% 52.8% 1.3% 0.6%
OAK @ DET 50.4% DEN 91.7% 91.1% 92.3% 1.2% 0.6%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% NYJ 33.2% 32.6% 33.8% 1.2% 0.6%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% SEA 30.0% 30.5% 29.3% -1.2% 0.6%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% MIN 82.8% 83.4% 82.2% -1.2% 0.6%
OAK @ DET 50.4% NYJ 33.2% 32.6% 33.7% 1.2% 0.6%
IND @ ATL 68.9% NO 3.1% 4.0% 2.7% -1.2% 0.6%
KC @ SD 39.0% HOU 27.3% 26.9% 28.0% 1.2% 0.6%
IND @ ATL 68.9% GB 83.3% 84.1% 83.0% -1.2% 0.5%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% DEN 91.7% 91.3% 92.4% 1.1% 0.5%
SF @ SEA 86.0% CHI 6.4% 7.7% 6.2% -1.5% 0.5%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% STL 8.0% 8.5% 7.4% -1.0% 0.5%
IND @ ATL 68.9% OAK 9.1% 8.4% 9.4% 1.0% 0.5%
SF @ SEA 86.0% TB 6.5% 7.7% 6.3% -1.3% 0.5%
CIN @ ARZ 65.7% STL 8.0% 8.6% 7.7% -0.9% 0.4%
SF @ SEA 86.0% STL 8.0% 9.0% 7.8% -1.2% 0.4%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% TB 6.5% 6.9% 6.1% -0.8% 0.4%
STL @ BAL 58.8% ARZ 97.2% 96.7% 97.5% 0.8% 0.4%
KC @ SD 39.0% SD 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4%
SF @ SEA 86.0% ARZ 97.2% 98.1% 97.1% -1.0% 0.4%
SF @ SEA 86.0% NO 3.1% 4.0% 3.0% -1.0% 0.3%
WAS @ CAR 74.0% CAR 99.8% 99.3% 100.0% 0.6% 0.3%
WAS @ CAR 74.0% DAL 2.9% 2.5% 3.1% 0.6% 0.3%
SF @ SEA 86.0% SF 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% -0.7% 0.3%
STL @ BAL 58.8% NO 3.1% 2.8% 3.3% 0.5% 0.3%
STL @ BAL 58.8% BAL 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%
OAK @ DET 50.4% DET 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
CIN @ ARZ 65.7% CIN 99.8% 100.0% 99.7% -0.3% 0.1%
DEN @ CHI 46.4% SD 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
KC @ SD 39.0% CIN 99.8% 99.7% 99.9% 0.2% 0.1%
GB @ MIN 53.4% DET 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
BUF @ NE 72.9% BAL 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
IND @ ATL 68.9% TEN 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
NYJ @ HOU 39.1% TEN 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1%
BUF @ NE 72.9% CIN 99.8% 99.7% 99.8% 0.1% 0.1%
OAK @ DET 50.4% TEN 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

No comments:

Post a Comment