Saturday, November 14, 2015

NFL Playoff Implications Week 10

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 10 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 10 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 10 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
MIN @ OAK 33.5%
ARZ @ SEA 29.0%
CLE @ PIT 21.2%
MIA @ PHI 21.2%
KC @ DEN 18.7%
CHI @ STL 17.8%
NE @ NYG 16.0%
NO @ WAS 16.0%
HOU @ CIN 8.6%
JAC @ BAL 4.4%
DET @ GB 4.3%
CAR @ TEN 3.5%
DAL @ TB 1.8%

Beyond Week 10

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 11-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
17 PHI @ NYG 50.3%
14 BUF @ PHI 40.7%
13 NYJ @ NYG 40.4%
12 PIT @ SEA 39.1%
17 NYJ @ BUF 37.9%
16 NYG @ MIN 36.9%
11 NYJ @ HOU 36.1%
15 HOU @ IND 36.1%
12 MIN @ ATL 35.2%
13 SEA @ MIN 34.9%

Week 10 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 10. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
ARZ @ SEA 60.4% SEA 50.1% 31.4% 62.3% 30.9% 15.1%
CLE @ PIT 65.7% PIT 29.8% 14.9% 37.6% 22.7% 10.8%
KC @ DEN 68.7% KC 26.0% 40.3% 19.5% -20.7% 9.6%
CHI @ STL 73.4% STL 30.2% 14.7% 35.8% 21.2% 9.4%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% MIN 52.2% 62.8% 45.3% -17.6% 8.6%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% OAK 27.5% 17.1% 34.4% 17.3% 8.5%
MIA @ PHI 71.9% PHI 59.0% 45.4% 64.3% 18.8% 8.5%
NE @ NYG 26.7% NYG 39.6% 34.5% 53.4% 18.9% 8.4%
ARZ @ SEA 60.4% ARZ 85.0% 94.3% 78.9% -15.5% 7.6%
NO @ WAS 46.0% NO 11.2% 17.0% 4.4% -12.6% 6.3%
MIA @ PHI 71.9% NYG 39.6% 48.2% 36.2% -12.0% 5.4%
NE @ NYG 26.7% PHI 59.0% 62.1% 50.3% -11.8% 5.2%
HOU @ CIN 82.1% HOU 15.5% 25.7% 13.3% -12.5% 4.8%
NO @ WAS 46.0% WAS 6.7% 3.6% 10.5% 6.9% 3.4%
HOU @ CIN 82.1% IND 79.4% 72.5% 80.9% 8.4% 3.2%
CLE @ PIT 65.7% NYJ 49.7% 53.8% 47.6% -6.2% 2.9%
MIA @ PHI 71.9% MIA 4.1% 8.7% 2.3% -6.4% 2.9%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% NYJ 49.7% 53.0% 47.6% -5.4% 2.7%
CLE @ PIT 65.7% BUF 59.4% 63.0% 57.5% -5.6% 2.6%
DET @ GB 83.7% GB 96.5% 90.5% 97.6% 7.1% 2.6%
KC @ DEN 68.7% NYJ 49.7% 46.0% 51.4% 5.4% 2.5%
KC @ DEN 68.7% PIT 29.8% 26.2% 31.5% 5.3% 2.4%
CLE @ PIT 65.7% OAK 27.5% 30.8% 25.8% -4.9% 2.3%
CHI @ STL 73.4% SEA 50.1% 53.7% 48.8% -4.9% 2.2%
JAC @ BAL 68.6% JAC 3.9% 6.8% 2.6% -4.3% 2.0%
CHI @ STL 73.4% ATL 66.6% 69.9% 65.5% -4.4% 1.9%
ARZ @ SEA 60.4% MIN 52.2% 54.6% 50.7% -3.9% 1.9%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% ATL 66.6% 64.4% 68.1% 3.7% 1.8%
NO @ WAS 46.0% ATL 66.6% 65.0% 68.6% 3.6% 1.8%
CAR @ TEN 31.4% TEN 3.1% 1.9% 5.7% 3.8% 1.8%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% STL 30.2% 28.1% 31.6% 3.5% 1.7%
CHI @ STL 73.4% ARZ 85.0% 87.8% 84.0% -3.8% 1.7%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% KC 26.0% 28.1% 24.6% -3.5% 1.7%
KC @ DEN 68.7% BUF 59.4% 57.0% 60.4% 3.4% 1.6%
ARZ @ SEA 60.4% ATL 66.6% 68.6% 65.4% -3.2% 1.6%
CLE @ PIT 65.7% KC 26.0% 28.2% 24.9% -3.3% 1.6%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% PIT 29.8% 31.6% 28.6% -3.0% 1.5%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% BUF 59.4% 61.2% 58.2% -3.0% 1.5%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% SEA 50.1% 48.3% 51.2% 2.9% 1.4%
ARZ @ SEA 60.4% NO 11.2% 12.8% 10.1% -2.7% 1.3%
NO @ WAS 46.0% PHI 59.0% 60.2% 57.6% -2.6% 1.3%
MIA @ PHI 71.9% WAS 6.7% 8.8% 5.9% -2.8% 1.3%
KC @ DEN 68.7% OAK 27.5% 25.6% 28.4% 2.7% 1.3%
CAR @ TEN 31.4% IND 79.4% 80.2% 77.6% -2.6% 1.2%
NO @ WAS 46.0% MIN 52.2% 51.2% 53.5% 2.4% 1.2%
JAC @ BAL 68.6% IND 79.4% 77.9% 80.1% 2.2% 1.0%
DAL @ TB 55.3% TB 1.6% 0.5% 2.5% 2.1% 1.0%
CHI @ STL 73.4% MIN 52.2% 53.9% 51.6% -2.3% 1.0%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% NO 11.2% 10.0% 12.0% 2.0% 1.0%
KC @ DEN 68.7% DEN 99.1% 97.7% 99.8% 2.0% 0.9%
JAC @ BAL 68.6% BAL 1.7% 0.3% 2.3% 2.0% 0.9%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% ARZ 85.0% 83.8% 85.7% 1.9% 0.9%
NE @ NYG 26.7% WAS 6.7% 7.3% 5.2% -2.1% 0.9%
CHI @ STL 73.4% CHI 0.7% 2.1% 0.1% -2.0% 0.9%
DET @ GB 83.7% MIN 52.2% 54.2% 51.9% -2.4% 0.9%
NO @ WAS 46.0% SEA 50.1% 49.3% 51.0% 1.7% 0.9%
NO @ WAS 46.0% NYG 39.6% 40.3% 38.7% -1.6% 0.8%
DAL @ TB 55.3% DAL 1.1% 2.0% 0.4% -1.6% 0.8%
ARZ @ SEA 60.4% STL 30.2% 31.1% 29.6% -1.4% 0.7%
MIA @ PHI 71.9% BUF 59.4% 58.3% 59.8% 1.5% 0.7%
MIA @ PHI 71.9% KC 26.0% 24.9% 26.5% 1.5% 0.7%
MIA @ PHI 71.9% NYJ 49.7% 48.7% 50.1% 1.5% 0.7%
MIA @ PHI 71.9% MIN 52.2% 53.3% 51.8% -1.4% 0.6%
NE @ NYG 26.7% MIN 52.2% 52.6% 51.2% -1.4% 0.6%
NE @ NYG 26.7% SEA 50.1% 50.4% 49.1% -1.4% 0.6%
DET @ GB 83.7% ATL 66.6% 68.0% 66.4% -1.6% 0.6%
CHI @ STL 73.4% NO 11.2% 12.0% 10.9% -1.2% 0.5%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% MIA 4.1% 4.7% 3.7% -1.0% 0.5%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% GB 96.5% 95.9% 96.8% 1.0% 0.5%
CAR @ TEN 31.4% CAR 99.4% 99.7% 98.7% -1.0% 0.5%
JAC @ BAL 68.6% HOU 15.5% 14.8% 15.8% 1.0% 0.4%
ARZ @ SEA 60.4% GB 96.5% 97.0% 96.1% -0.9% 0.4%
CLE @ PIT 65.7% MIA 4.1% 4.7% 3.8% -0.9% 0.4%
MIA @ PHI 71.9% DAL 1.1% 1.8% 0.8% -1.0% 0.4%
KC @ DEN 68.7% MIA 4.1% 3.5% 4.4% 0.9% 0.4%
ARZ @ SEA 60.4% TB 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% -0.7% 0.4%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% WAS 6.7% 6.4% 7.0% 0.6% 0.3%
HOU @ CIN 82.1% JAC 3.9% 3.3% 4.0% 0.7% 0.3%
NE @ NYG 26.7% DAL 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% -0.6% 0.3%
HOU @ CIN 82.1% TEN 3.1% 2.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.3%
CHI @ STL 73.4% GB 96.5% 96.9% 96.3% -0.6% 0.3%
CLE @ PIT 65.7% CLE 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 0.2%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% JAC 3.9% 4.2% 3.7% -0.5% 0.2%
NO @ WAS 46.0% GB 96.5% 96.2% 96.7% 0.5% 0.2%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% BAL 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% -0.5% 0.2%
DET @ GB 83.7% DAL 1.1% 1.6% 1.0% -0.6% 0.2%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% TB 1.6% 1.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2%
CLE @ PIT 65.7% DEN 99.1% 99.4% 99.0% -0.4% 0.2%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% DEN 99.1% 99.4% 99.0% -0.4% 0.2%
NO @ WAS 46.0% CHI 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
MIN @ OAK 60.2% CLE 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1%
HOU @ CIN 82.1% CIN 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NE @ NYG 26.7% NE 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% -0.1% 0.0%

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