Saturday, May 2, 2015

NBA Live Win Probabilities - Mark II

A few new bells and whistles have been added to the live version of the NBA Win Probability graphs. Users now have the option of selecting either the "50/50" win probabilities or the "Adjusted" version, the latter of which takes into account the pre-game point spread. The 50/50 version assumes both teams are evenly matched and playing on an a neutral court. The adjusted version would be more appropriate for in-game betting, and should track fairly closely to the probabilities found at Gambletron 2000.

You can toggle between the two versions, or, if you can't make up your mind, just enable the "Show Both Graphs" checkbox.

A note that the Excitement Index, Comeback Factor, and Player Win Probability added stats always use the 50/50 version, irrespective of user input.

That link again: Live NBA Win Probabilities (graph will update once Spurs-Clippers gets underway tonight).

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