I've been quietly adding prior seasons to my win probability graphs and box scores over the past week (and will continue to do so until my database says uncle). To give you a sense of how remarkable Davis' season has been, here is how the WPA race looked at this point in the season over the past three years.
- 2011-12 season, as of April 6, 2012 (lockout shortened season)
The closest comparison is Kevin Durant's 2012-13 season, in which he amassed 6.62 in win probability added through early February. But note that KD had 50 games to get to that point, while Davis has a higher WPA total with five fewer games.
Win probability added is not a perfect metric (there is no such thing) and it is far from comprehensive. As I've defined it, it explicitly ignores defense, assists, and rebounds - although Davis still looks good when you roll those stats in to his totals. But Davis is getting unfairly discounted as an MVP candidate due to the Pelicans' poor record this season. Yes, the Pelicans have struggled to win games this season, but win probability added shows those struggles have had little to do with Davis.