Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Turnover Index - Week 16

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 16. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 14 results

Our week 14 bet was successful against the spread, with the Raiders covering against the Niners. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 8-2
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $1,073 (8% ROI)
And here are the week by week results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
7 2 2 $1,000 $51 (5.2%) $47 $1,047
8 2 1 $1,047 $26 (2.6%) $1 $1,048
10 2 2 $1,048 $32 (3.1%) $29 $1,077
12 2 1 $1,077 $26 (2.5%) ($11) $1,066
13 1 1 $1,066 $7 (0.7%) $6 $1,073
14 1 1 $1,073 $6 (0.6%) $5 $1,079

Week 16 Picks

There is just one bet against the spread this week (the Raiders to cover against the Bills). We are wagering 1.5% of our bankroll. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Bills @ Raiders 30 11 -19 -1.4 Raiders 53.1% 1.5%

The "Old" Index

Under the original, simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the teams), season to date results for 2014 are 7-4 against the spread.

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