Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Turnover Index - Week 13

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 12 results

Our week 12 bets went 1-1 against the spread. Our bet on the Redskins was successful, but we only wagered 0.8% of our bankroll. Our bet on the Jets was unsuccessful (to say the least), and we had a higher stake on that game: 1.7% of our bankroll. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 6-2
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $1,066 (7% ROI)
And here are the week by week results:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
7 2 2 $1,000 $51 (5.2%) $47 $1,047
8 2 1 $1,047 $26 (2.6%) $1 $1,048
10 2 2 $1,048 $32 (3.1%) $29 $1,077
12 2 1 $1,077 $26 (2.5%) ($11) $1,066

Week 13 Picks

There is just one bet against the spread this week. We are wagering 0.5% of our bankroll in total. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Dolphins @ Jets 20 7 -13 -1.2 Jets 52.7% 0.7%

The "Old" Index

Under the original, simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the teams), season to date results for 2014 are 5-1 against the spread.

2 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. A 52.1% probability for the Titans to cover, which is just shy of breakeven, assuming the standard vig.

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