Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Turnover Index - Week 12

Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 12. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 11 results

There were no week 11 games that satisfied our betting criteria, but here is a summary of season to date performance. We are at a 7.7% ROI so far off of our hypothetical $1,000 bankroll (we have gone 4-1 against the spread).

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
7 2 2 $1,000 $51 (5.2%) $47 $1,047
8 2 1 $1,047 $26 (2.6%) $1 $1,048
10 2 2 $1,048 $32 (3.1%) $29 $1,077

Week 12 Picks

There are two bets against the spread this week. We are wagering 2.5% of our bankroll in total. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.

turnovers
gameawayhomediffper gamepickprobbet
Jets @ Bills 7 21 14 1.4 Jets 53.2% 1.7%
Redskins @ Fortyniners 9 21 12 1.2 Redskins 52.7% 0.8%

The "Old" Index

Under the original, simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the teams), season to date results for 2014 are 4-0 against the spread.

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