Turnover Index - Week 9
Here are the Turnover Index picks (of which there are none) for Week 9. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.
Week 8 results
No games satisfy our betting criteria this week, but here are updated results from Week 8.
Our two Week 8 picks went 1-1 against the spread. The Saints covered against the Packers quite easily. The Jets, however, did not (despite cunning attempts at subterfuge). Although we went 1-1, we actually had a positive ROI this week (one dollar!) because our Kelly Criterion-based betting rule placed slightly more of our bankroll on the Saints than on the Jets. Here are the season to date results:
Our two Week 8 picks went 1-1 against the spread. The Saints covered against the Packers quite easily. The Jets, however, did not (despite cunning attempts at subterfuge). Although we went 1-1, we actually had a positive ROI this week (one dollar!) because our Kelly Criterion-based betting rule placed slightly more of our bankroll on the Saints than on the Jets. Here are the season to date results:
- Against the Spread: 3-1-0
- Starting Bankroll: $1,000
- Current Bankroll: $1,048 (5% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:
| week | bets | won | starting bankroll | amount bet | profits | ending bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2 | 2 | $1,000 | $51 (5.2%) | $47 | $1,047 |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | $1,047 | $26 (2.6%) | $1 | $1,048 |
The "Old" Index
Under the original, simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the teams), season to date results for 2014 are 2-0 against the spread.
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