Friday, October 31, 2014

Turnover Index - Week 9

Here are the Turnover Index picks (of which there are none) for Week 9. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Week 8 results

No games satisfy our betting criteria this week, but here are updated results from Week 8.

Our two Week 8 picks went 1-1 against the spread. The Saints covered against the Packers quite easily. The Jets, however, did not (despite cunning attempts at subterfuge). Although we went 1-1, we actually had a positive ROI this week (one dollar!) because our Kelly Criterion-based betting rule placed slightly more of our bankroll on the Saints than on the Jets. Here are the season to date results:
  • Against the Spread: 3-1-0
  • Starting Bankroll: $1,000
  • Current Bankroll: $1,048 (5% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:

weekbetswonstarting
bankroll
amount betprofitsending
bankroll
7 2 2 $1,000 $51 (5.2%) $47 $1,047
8 2 1 $1,047 $26 (2.6%) $1 $1,048

The "Old" Index

Under the original, simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the teams), season to date results for 2014 are 2-0 against the spread.

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