Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Playoff Implications - Week 5

Here is your week 5 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 5 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 5 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
CIN @ NE 25.6%
HOU @ DAL 25.1%
BAL @ IND 24.0%
KC @ SF 23.2%
ATL @ NYG 22.9%
BUF @ DET 21.4%
CHI @ CAR 15.8%
MIN @ GB 15.7%
NYJ @ SD 15.2%
TB @ NO 12.7%
ARZ @ DEN 10.7%
STL @ PHI 9.0%
SEA @ WAS 8.2%
CLE @ TEN 6.1%
PIT @ JAC 3.4%

Beyond Week 5

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 6-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
14 NE @ SD 33.8%
16 ATL @ NO 32.4%
10 SF @ NO 30.7%
6 NE @ BUF 29.9%
9 PHI @ HOU 29.5%
8 GB @ NO 29.5%
14 ATL @ GB 29.4%
11 ATL @ CAR 28.1%
13 PHI @ DAL 27.9%
17 PHI @ NYG 27.9%

Week 5 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 5. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
BAL @ IND 62.1% IND 68.7% 54.4% 77.5% 23.0% 11.2%
BAL @ IND 62.1% BAL 71.7% 84.0% 64.2% -19.8% 9.6%
MIN @ GB 79.2% GB 64.6% 46.0% 69.5% 23.4% 9.5%
NYJ @ SD 73.5% SD 61.5% 46.9% 66.8% 19.9% 8.8%
CIN @ NE 60.2% NE 57.2% 46.7% 64.2% 17.5% 8.6%
HOU @ DAL 61.7% HOU 58.3% 68.9% 51.7% -17.2% 8.4%
HOU @ DAL 61.7% DAL 47.8% 37.3% 54.4% 17.0% 8.3%
ATL @ NYG 63.6% NYG 38.6% 27.9% 44.6% 16.7% 8.0%
KC @ SF 72.8% SF 45.7% 32.7% 50.6% 17.9% 8.0%
ATL @ NYG 63.6% ATL 48.9% 58.8% 43.3% -15.5% 7.5%
BUF @ DET 72.9% DET 73.6% 62.2% 77.8% 15.6% 6.9%
TB @ NO 82.2% NO 38.3% 23.4% 41.5% 18.1% 6.9%
KC @ SF 72.8% KC 24.1% 35.1% 20.0% -15.1% 6.7%
BUF @ DET 72.9% BUF 25.8% 36.7% 21.8% -14.9% 6.6%
STL @ PHI 73.2% PHI 38.8% 28.1% 42.7% 14.6% 6.4%
ARZ @ DEN 72.9% ARZ 71.7% 81.7% 67.9% -13.8% 6.1%
CIN @ NE 60.2% CIN 86.3% 93.2% 81.8% -11.5% 5.6%
CHI @ CAR 58.3% CAR 20.8% 14.4% 25.3% 10.9% 5.4%
CHI @ CAR 58.3% CHI 12.0% 18.3% 7.5% -10.8% 5.3%
SEA @ WAS 27.5% SEA 88.8% 91.8% 80.9% -10.9% 4.9%
MIN @ GB 79.2% MIN 7.1% 16.3% 4.7% -11.6% 4.7%
ATL @ NYG 63.6% NO 38.3% 33.5% 41.0% 7.5% 3.6%
PIT @ JAC 28.5% PIT 12.3% 14.5% 6.8% -7.6% 3.4%
HOU @ DAL 61.7% IND 68.7% 64.5% 71.3% 6.8% 3.3%
CLE @ TEN 57.4% CLE 5.8% 9.4% 3.2% -6.2% 3.1%
CLE @ TEN 57.4% TEN 6.9% 3.3% 9.5% 6.2% 3.1%
ARZ @ DEN 72.9% DEN 93.2% 88.2% 95.1% 6.9% 3.1%
CIN @ NE 60.2% BUF 25.8% 29.5% 23.4% -6.2% 3.0%
BUF @ DET 72.9% NE 57.2% 52.5% 59.0% 6.5% 2.9%
TB @ NO 82.2% ATL 48.9% 54.7% 47.7% -7.1% 2.7%
NYJ @ SD 73.5% NYJ 5.7% 10.1% 4.1% -6.0% 2.7%
HOU @ DAL 61.7% PHI 38.8% 42.1% 36.7% -5.4% 2.6%
STL @ PHI 73.2% DAL 47.8% 52.1% 46.3% -5.8% 2.6%
CHI @ CAR 58.3% ATL 48.9% 51.8% 46.9% -4.8% 2.4%
KC @ SF 72.8% SD 61.5% 58.1% 62.8% 4.7% 2.1%
CIN @ NE 60.2% MIA 22.3% 24.9% 20.6% -4.3% 2.1%
NYJ @ SD 73.5% IND 68.7% 72.1% 67.5% -4.5% 2.0%
SEA @ WAS 27.5% WAS 2.7% 1.5% 5.8% 4.3% 1.9%
ATL @ NYG 63.6% DAL 47.8% 50.4% 46.4% -4.0% 1.9%
ATL @ NYG 63.6% PHI 38.8% 41.2% 37.3% -3.9% 1.9%
TB @ NO 82.2% CAR 20.8% 24.7% 19.9% -4.8% 1.8%
BAL @ IND 62.1% HOU 58.3% 60.6% 56.9% -3.7% 1.8%
HOU @ DAL 61.7% NYG 38.6% 40.6% 37.3% -3.3% 1.6%
KC @ SF 72.8% ARZ 71.7% 74.3% 70.7% -3.6% 1.6%
ARZ @ DEN 72.9% SF 45.7% 43.3% 46.6% 3.3% 1.5%
KC @ SF 72.8% GB 64.6% 67.0% 63.7% -3.3% 1.5%
CIN @ NE 60.2% NO 38.3% 36.5% 39.5% 3.0% 1.5%
MIN @ GB 79.2% DET 73.6% 76.4% 72.8% -3.6% 1.5%
BUF @ DET 72.9% MIA 22.3% 19.9% 23.2% 3.2% 1.4%
BUF @ DET 72.9% GB 64.6% 66.9% 63.7% -3.2% 1.4%
KC @ SF 72.8% PHI 38.8% 41.1% 37.9% -3.1% 1.4%
BAL @ IND 62.1% DAL 47.8% 49.6% 46.7% -2.9% 1.4%
CIN @ NE 60.2% HOU 58.3% 56.6% 59.4% 2.9% 1.4%
CHI @ CAR 58.3% NO 38.3% 39.9% 37.1% -2.8% 1.4%
BUF @ DET 72.9% ARZ 71.7% 73.9% 70.8% -3.1% 1.4%
SEA @ WAS 27.5% SF 45.7% 44.9% 47.9% 3.1% 1.4%
CIN @ NE 60.2% SD 61.5% 59.9% 62.6% 2.7% 1.3%
CIN @ NE 60.2% CAR 20.8% 22.4% 19.7% -2.7% 1.3%
CHI @ CAR 58.3% GB 64.6% 63.0% 65.7% 2.7% 1.3%
KC @ SF 72.8% DET 73.6% 75.6% 72.8% -2.7% 1.2%
NYJ @ SD 73.5% PIT 12.3% 14.1% 11.7% -2.4% 1.1%
HOU @ DAL 61.7% TEN 6.9% 5.6% 7.6% 2.0% 1.0%
CIN @ NE 60.2% NYJ 5.7% 6.6% 5.0% -1.6% 0.8%
KC @ SF 72.8% DEN 93.2% 92.0% 93.7% 1.7% 0.8%
TB @ NO 82.2% DEN 93.2% 91.7% 93.6% 1.8% 0.7%
BUF @ DET 72.9% NYJ 5.7% 4.6% 6.1% 1.5% 0.6%
NYJ @ SD 73.5% CLE 5.8% 6.9% 5.4% -1.5% 0.6%
TB @ NO 82.2% TB 0.6% 1.7% 0.3% -1.4% 0.5%

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