Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Playoff Implications - Week 4

Here is your week 4 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 4 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 4 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
CAR @ BAL 25.2%
GB @ CHI 24.7%
BUF @ HOU 24.5%
NO @ DAL 23.4%
PHI @ SF 23.0%
DET @ NYJ 20.5%
TEN @ IND 19.2%
ATL @ MIN 17.7%
NE @ KC 16.3%
NYG @ WAS 10.4%
TB @ PIT 9.3%
JAC @ SD 8.2%
MIA @ OAK 5.9%

Beyond Week 4

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 5-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
6 NE @ BUF 29.2%
16 DET @ CHI 29.1%
6 IND @ HOU 29.0%
15 PIT @ ATL 28.9%
16 BAL @ HOU 28.7%
9 ARZ @ DAL 28.3%
15 NO @ CHI 28.3%
6 CHI @ ATL 27.2%
7 HOU @ PIT 27.1%
13 NE @ GB 27.0%

Week 4 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 4. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
GB @ CHI 53.5% GB 35.3% 48.8% 23.6% -25.1% 12.5%
GB @ CHI 53.5% CHI 43.5% 30.5% 54.8% 24.4% 12.2%
PHI @ SF 68.5% SF 49.9% 33.2% 57.6% 24.4% 11.3%
TEN @ IND 74.8% IND 54.1% 35.8% 60.2% 24.4% 10.6%
NO @ DAL 39.9% NO 54.2% 62.8% 41.2% -21.6% 10.6%
BUF @ HOU 61.0% BUF 38.0% 50.4% 30.1% -20.3% 9.9%
ATL @ MIN 41.8% ATL 53.1% 61.3% 41.8% -19.5% 9.6%
BUF @ HOU 61.0% HOU 52.9% 41.1% 60.4% 19.4% 9.4%
DET @ NYJ 44.5% DET 56.5% 64.3% 46.7% -17.6% 8.8%
TEN @ IND 74.8% TEN 17.1% 31.9% 12.1% -19.8% 8.6%
CAR @ BAL 60.2% BAL 50.9% 40.4% 57.9% 17.5% 8.6%
NE @ KC 37.0% NE 69.2% 75.7% 58.2% -17.5% 8.5%
CAR @ BAL 60.2% CAR 31.4% 41.3% 24.8% -16.5% 8.1%
NO @ DAL 39.9% DAL 22.0% 16.1% 31.0% 15.0% 7.3%
JAC @ SD 87.1% SD 69.4% 51.5% 72.0% 20.5% 6.9%
PHI @ SF 68.5% PHI 76.2% 86.2% 71.6% -14.6% 6.8%
TB @ PIT 75.0% PIT 39.7% 28.3% 43.5% 15.3% 6.6%
NYG @ WAS 61.7% WAS 15.7% 8.5% 20.1% 11.6% 5.6%
NYG @ WAS 61.7% NYG 9.2% 15.3% 5.5% -9.8% 4.8%
MIA @ OAK 35.1% MIA 11.4% 14.5% 5.8% -8.7% 4.2%
BUF @ HOU 61.0% IND 54.1% 58.3% 51.4% -7.0% 3.4%
DET @ NYJ 44.5% NYJ 8.3% 5.3% 12.2% 6.9% 3.4%
NE @ KC 37.0% KC 5.3% 3.0% 9.1% 6.0% 2.9%
ATL @ MIN 41.8% NO 54.2% 51.8% 57.5% 5.6% 2.8%
ATL @ MIN 41.8% MIN 4.8% 2.5% 7.9% 5.4% 2.7%
NE @ KC 37.0% BUF 38.0% 36.0% 41.4% 5.4% 2.6%
NO @ DAL 39.9% ATL 53.1% 51.3% 55.9% 4.6% 2.2%
DET @ NYJ 44.5% GB 35.3% 33.4% 37.7% 4.4% 2.2%
DET @ NYJ 44.5% CHI 43.5% 41.6% 45.9% 4.3% 2.1%
CAR @ BAL 60.2% ATL 53.1% 50.6% 54.8% 4.2% 2.1%
CAR @ BAL 60.2% NO 54.2% 51.8% 55.8% 4.1% 2.0%
NO @ DAL 39.9% CAR 31.4% 29.8% 33.7% 4.0% 1.9%
BUF @ HOU 61.0% NE 69.2% 67.0% 70.6% 3.6% 1.8%
CAR @ BAL 60.2% PIT 39.7% 41.9% 38.3% -3.5% 1.7%
MIA @ OAK 35.1% NE 69.2% 68.0% 71.6% 3.6% 1.7%
ATL @ MIN 41.8% CAR 31.4% 29.9% 33.3% 3.4% 1.7%
TB @ PIT 75.0% IND 54.1% 56.6% 53.2% -3.4% 1.5%
PHI @ SF 68.5% ATL 53.1% 55.3% 52.1% -3.2% 1.5%
DET @ NYJ 44.5% BUF 38.0% 39.3% 36.4% -2.9% 1.4%
CAR @ BAL 60.2% CHI 43.5% 41.8% 44.7% 2.9% 1.4%
PHI @ SF 68.5% GB 35.3% 37.4% 34.4% -3.0% 1.4%
DET @ NYJ 44.5% ARZ 54.7% 53.5% 56.2% 2.7% 1.4%
JAC @ SD 87.1% PIT 39.7% 43.2% 39.2% -4.0% 1.3%
CAR @ BAL 60.2% SD 69.4% 71.0% 68.3% -2.7% 1.3%
NO @ DAL 39.9% PHI 76.2% 77.2% 74.6% -2.7% 1.3%
DET @ NYJ 44.5% CAR 31.4% 30.2% 32.7% 2.5% 1.2%
TB @ PIT 75.0% CAR 31.4% 29.2% 32.1% 2.8% 1.2%
NE @ KC 37.0% MIA 11.4% 10.5% 12.9% 2.4% 1.2%
PHI @ SF 68.5% DAL 22.0% 20.4% 22.8% 2.4% 1.1%
NE @ KC 37.0% NYJ 8.3% 7.5% 9.8% 2.3% 1.1%
PHI @ SF 68.5% NYG 9.2% 7.8% 9.9% 2.1% 1.0%
ATL @ MIN 41.8% WAS 15.7% 14.9% 16.8% 1.9% 1.0%

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