Playoff Implications - Week 4

Here is your week 4 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 4 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 4 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
CAR @ BAL	25.2%
GB @ CHI	24.7%
BUF @ HOU	24.5%
NO @ DAL	23.4%
PHI @ SF	23.0%
DET @ NYJ	20.5%
TEN @ IND	19.2%
ATL @ MIN	17.7%
NE @ KC	16.3%
NYG @ WAS	10.4%
TB @ PIT	9.3%
JAC @ SD	8.2%
MIA @ OAK	5.9%

Beyond Week 4

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 5-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
6	NE @ BUF	29.2%
16	DET @ CHI	29.1%
6	IND @ HOU	29.0%
15	PIT @ ATL	28.9%
16	BAL @ HOU	28.7%
9	ARZ @ DAL	28.3%
15	NO @ CHI	28.3%
6	CHI @ ATL	27.2%
7	HOU @ PIT	27.1%
13	NE @ GB	27.0%

Week 4 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 4. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

CAR@BAL GB@CHI NO@DAL BUF@HOU TEN@IND NE@KC ATL@MIN DET@NYJ MIA@OAK TB@PIT JAC@SD PHI@SF NYG@WAS  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
GB @ CHI	53.5%	GB	35.3%	48.8%	23.6%	-25.1%	12.5%
GB @ CHI	53.5%	CHI	43.5%	30.5%	54.8%	24.4%	12.2%
PHI @ SF	68.5%	SF	49.9%	33.2%	57.6%	24.4%	11.3%
TEN @ IND	74.8%	IND	54.1%	35.8%	60.2%	24.4%	10.6%
NO @ DAL	39.9%	NO	54.2%	62.8%	41.2%	-21.6%	10.6%
BUF @ HOU	61.0%	BUF	38.0%	50.4%	30.1%	-20.3%	9.9%
ATL @ MIN	41.8%	ATL	53.1%	61.3%	41.8%	-19.5%	9.6%
BUF @ HOU	61.0%	HOU	52.9%	41.1%	60.4%	19.4%	9.4%
DET @ NYJ	44.5%	DET	56.5%	64.3%	46.7%	-17.6%	8.8%
TEN @ IND	74.8%	TEN	17.1%	31.9%	12.1%	-19.8%	8.6%
CAR @ BAL	60.2%	BAL	50.9%	40.4%	57.9%	17.5%	8.6%
NE @ KC	37.0%	NE	69.2%	75.7%	58.2%	-17.5%	8.5%
CAR @ BAL	60.2%	CAR	31.4%	41.3%	24.8%	-16.5%	8.1%
NO @ DAL	39.9%	DAL	22.0%	16.1%	31.0%	15.0%	7.3%
JAC @ SD	87.1%	SD	69.4%	51.5%	72.0%	20.5%	6.9%
PHI @ SF	68.5%	PHI	76.2%	86.2%	71.6%	-14.6%	6.8%
TB @ PIT	75.0%	PIT	39.7%	28.3%	43.5%	15.3%	6.6%
NYG @ WAS	61.7%	WAS	15.7%	8.5%	20.1%	11.6%	5.6%
NYG @ WAS	61.7%	NYG	9.2%	15.3%	5.5%	-9.8%	4.8%
MIA @ OAK	35.1%	MIA	11.4%	14.5%	5.8%	-8.7%	4.2%
BUF @ HOU	61.0%	IND	54.1%	58.3%	51.4%	-7.0%	3.4%
DET @ NYJ	44.5%	NYJ	8.3%	5.3%	12.2%	6.9%	3.4%
NE @ KC	37.0%	KC	5.3%	3.0%	9.1%	6.0%	2.9%
ATL @ MIN	41.8%	NO	54.2%	51.8%	57.5%	5.6%	2.8%
ATL @ MIN	41.8%	MIN	4.8%	2.5%	7.9%	5.4%	2.7%
NE @ KC	37.0%	BUF	38.0%	36.0%	41.4%	5.4%	2.6%
NO @ DAL	39.9%	ATL	53.1%	51.3%	55.9%	4.6%	2.2%
DET @ NYJ	44.5%	GB	35.3%	33.4%	37.7%	4.4%	2.2%
DET @ NYJ	44.5%	CHI	43.5%	41.6%	45.9%	4.3%	2.1%
CAR @ BAL	60.2%	ATL	53.1%	50.6%	54.8%	4.2%	2.1%
CAR @ BAL	60.2%	NO	54.2%	51.8%	55.8%	4.1%	2.0%
NO @ DAL	39.9%	CAR	31.4%	29.8%	33.7%	4.0%	1.9%
BUF @ HOU	61.0%	NE	69.2%	67.0%	70.6%	3.6%	1.8%
CAR @ BAL	60.2%	PIT	39.7%	41.9%	38.3%	-3.5%	1.7%
MIA @ OAK	35.1%	NE	69.2%	68.0%	71.6%	3.6%	1.7%
ATL @ MIN	41.8%	CAR	31.4%	29.9%	33.3%	3.4%	1.7%
TB @ PIT	75.0%	IND	54.1%	56.6%	53.2%	-3.4%	1.5%
PHI @ SF	68.5%	ATL	53.1%	55.3%	52.1%	-3.2%	1.5%
DET @ NYJ	44.5%	BUF	38.0%	39.3%	36.4%	-2.9%	1.4%
CAR @ BAL	60.2%	CHI	43.5%	41.8%	44.7%	2.9%	1.4%
PHI @ SF	68.5%	GB	35.3%	37.4%	34.4%	-3.0%	1.4%
DET @ NYJ	44.5%	ARZ	54.7%	53.5%	56.2%	2.7%	1.4%
JAC @ SD	87.1%	PIT	39.7%	43.2%	39.2%	-4.0%	1.3%
CAR @ BAL	60.2%	SD	69.4%	71.0%	68.3%	-2.7%	1.3%
NO @ DAL	39.9%	PHI	76.2%	77.2%	74.6%	-2.7%	1.3%
DET @ NYJ	44.5%	CAR	31.4%	30.2%	32.7%	2.5%	1.2%
TB @ PIT	75.0%	CAR	31.4%	29.2%	32.1%	2.8%	1.2%
NE @ KC	37.0%	MIA	11.4%	10.5%	12.9%	2.4%	1.2%
PHI @ SF	68.5%	DAL	22.0%	20.4%	22.8%	2.4%	1.1%
NE @ KC	37.0%	NYJ	8.3%	7.5%	9.8%	2.3%	1.1%
PHI @ SF	68.5%	NYG	9.2%	7.8%	9.9%	2.1%	1.0%
ATL @ MIN	41.8%	WAS	15.7%	14.9%	16.8%	1.9%	1.0%