Tuesday, August 26, 2014

NFL Home Underdogs - A Reminder

An update on last year's post on NFL home underdogs. From 1989 to 2003, NFL home underdogs went 53.5% against the spread. But for the next nine years (2004-2012), home dogs are just 47.7% against the spread.

2013 bucked this recent trend somewhat, with 88 bets averaging 52.3% against the spread (just a hair shy of break even against the standard vig). But as it stands, this still looks like a blip in what has been poor performance for some time. So be wary of anyone that claims that NFL home underdogs are a good bet. It was true when Steven Levitt published his seminal paper on betting markets in 2004, but it has been just the opposite in the ten years since. See below for year by year performance:


No comments:

Post a Comment