Saturday, August 30, 2014

Daily NFL Rankings - With Playoff Seed Projections

My betting market rankings for the NFL are now up and running (see here for the first look). To improve access to the table, which had been spotty, I had to move the rankings to a new location. Here is the new URL: NFL Betting Market Rankings. The old url should redirect automatically to the new one, but it's probably a good idea to update bookmarks.

All of the old features are back: sparklines, playoff seed projections, and strength of schedule.

Playoff Seeds

There is a series of odd looking bar graphs under the "Projected Seed" column. Each bar in the graph represents the probability of a team achieving a particular playoff seed. The bars run left to right from seed 16 to seed 1. The top six seeds make the playoffs and are colored blue on the graph. The probabilities are based on a 5,000 round monte carlo simulation of the regular season. These will be updated daily with the latest game results and point spreads.

Here is a look at Seattle's seed probabilities:



The most likely outcome for Seattle is a #1 seed (26% probability). The second most likely outcome is a 5th seed (18% probability). This is due to Seattle being in the same division as the #3 ranked team, the 49ers (the top 4 seeds are reserved for the division winners). Here is San Francisco's corresponding seed probabilities:



To the left of each bar graph is a percentage, which represents a team's probability of making the playoffs. To open the season, the Broncos have the highest playoff probability at ~90%. They are ranked below the Seahawks, but have better playoffs odds due to a weaker schedule.

Strength of Schedule

There are two columns to the far right of the table: pSOS and fSOS. These columns are the average GPF (Generic Points Favored) of a team's past and future opponents, respectively (home field advantage is factored into the averages).

The team with the toughest schedule this season is the Arizona Cardinals, who get to face the Seahawks and 49ers twice, as well as matchups against top tier teams like the Broncos and Eagles.

The team with the easiest schedule is the Houston Texans, due to the extremely soft AFC South and their prior season finish as the last place team.

The Rankings

Eyeballing the latest version of the table, we can break down teams into a few broad categories:
  • The Elite: Seahawks, Broncos, 49ers, Packers, Patriots, and Saints
  • The Above Average: Panthers, Eagles, Bengals, Bears, Lions, Colts, Steelers, Chiefs, Falcons, Cardinals
  • The Mediocre: Chargers, Giants, Dolphins, Texans, Rams, Redskins, Buccaneers, Jets, Bills, Browns, Titans, Vikings
  • The Raiders and the Jaguars

2 comments:

  1. Will you still be uploading a google docs version for each sport? Would be great!!

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    Replies
    1. Currently not available, but hope to add it back soon.

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