Playoff Implications - Week 16

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 16 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 16 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
CHI @ PHI	60.0%
MIA @ BUF	57.7%
NE @ BAL	44.6%
DAL @ WAS	34.7%
ARZ @ SEA	33.7%
ATL @ SF	30.5%
PIT @ GB	28.0%
NYG @ DET	24.8%
MIN @ CIN	23.3%
NO @ CAR	14.0%
RAI @ SD	4.5%
TB @ STL	1.2%
TEN @ JAC	0.3%
CLE @ NYJ	0.0%
DEN @ TEX	0.0%
IND @ KC	0.0%

This week's top leverage game features two teams each with about a 50/50 shot of winning their respective divisions (Chicago in the North and Philly in the East). The outcome of this game has significant implications for not only the Bears and Eagles, but for the Lions, Cowboys, and Packers as well. By my leverage metric, this game actually matters more to the Lions than it does to the Eagles (see dropdown below).

Beyond Week 16

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 5 week 17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
17	PHI @ DAL	74.8%
17	GB @ CHI	70.2%
17	NYJ @ MIA	46.6%
17	BAL @ CIN	46.5%
17	DET @ MIN	39.2%

As I had called out before week 10, a lot will be riding on the Dallas-Philly season finale (unless the Eagles win and the Cowboys lose in week 16).

Week 16 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 16. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

NE@BAL MIA@BUF NO@CAR MIN@CIN NYG@DET PIT@GB TEN@JAC IND@KC CLE@NYJ CHI@PHI RAI@SD ARZ@SEA ATL@SF TB@STL DEN@TEX DAL@WAS  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ PHI PIT RAI SD SEA SF STL TB TEN TEX WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
MIA @ BUF	41.9%	MIA	56.9%	81.4%	22.9%	-58.5%	28.9%
NE @ BAL	57.7%	BAL	55.5%	30.8%	73.7%	42.9%	21.2%
MIA @ BUF	41.9%	BAL	55.5%	38.5%	79.1%	40.6%	20.0%
CHI @ PHI	59.7%	CHI	46.7%	68.4%	32.0%	-36.4%	17.9%
DAL @ WAS	41.5%	DAL	44.5%	59.1%	23.9%	-35.2%	17.3%
DAL @ WAS	41.5%	PHI	55.5%	40.9%	76.1%	35.2%	17.3%
ARZ @ SEA	81.8%	ARZ	19.5%	55.2%	11.5%	-43.6%	16.9%
ATL @ SF	86.2%	SF	87.4%	49.3%	93.5%	44.3%	15.3%
NE @ BAL	57.7%	MIA	56.9%	73.5%	44.7%	-28.8%	14.2%
PIT @ GB	59.1%	GB	29.3%	12.5%	41.0%	28.5%	14.0%
CHI @ PHI	59.7%	DET	24.0%	7.9%	35.0%	27.1%	13.3%
ATL @ SF	86.2%	ARZ	19.5%	51.9%	14.3%	-37.6%	13.0%
ARZ @ SEA	81.8%	SF	87.4%	61.4%	93.2%	31.8%	12.3%
NYG @ DET	79.4%	DET	24.0%	0.0%	30.3%	30.3%	12.2%
CHI @ PHI	59.7%	PHI	55.5%	40.7%	65.5%	24.7%	12.1%
CHI @ PHI	59.7%	DAL	44.5%	59.3%	34.5%	-24.7%	12.1%
MIN @ CIN	77.7%	CIN	87.9%	68.6%	93.4%	24.8%	10.3%
PIT @ GB	59.1%	DET	24.0%	36.3%	15.5%	-20.7%	10.2%
NYG @ DET	79.4%	CHI	46.7%	65.3%	41.8%	-23.5%	9.5%
MIN @ CIN	77.7%	MIA	56.9%	70.4%	53.0%	-17.4%	7.3%
NO @ CAR	60.5%	CAR	94.3%	85.6%	100.0%	14.4%	7.0%
NO @ CAR	60.5%	ARZ	19.5%	26.8%	14.7%	-12.1%	5.9%
MIA @ BUF	41.9%	CIN	87.9%	83.0%	94.6%	11.6%	5.7%
CHI @ PHI	59.7%	GB	29.3%	23.8%	33.1%	9.3%	4.6%
NE @ BAL	57.7%	CIN	87.9%	92.4%	84.6%	-7.8%	3.9%
PIT @ GB	59.1%	CHI	46.7%	51.3%	43.5%	-7.8%	3.8%
NYG @ DET	79.4%	GB	29.3%	34.7%	27.9%	-6.8%	2.8%
ARZ @ SEA	81.8%	NO	98.8%	93.2%	100.0%	6.8%	2.6%
MIN @ CIN	77.7%	BAL	55.5%	59.6%	54.4%	-5.2%	2.2%
ARZ @ SEA	81.8%	CAR	94.3%	90.2%	95.2%	5.0%	1.9%
ATL @ SF	86.2%	CAR	94.3%	98.8%	93.6%	-5.2%	1.8%
MIA @ BUF	41.9%	SD	1.4%	0.0%	3.3%	3.3%	1.6%
NE @ BAL	57.7%	SD	1.4%	3.3%	0.0%	-3.3%	1.6%
MIN @ CIN	77.7%	CHI	46.7%	43.9%	47.5%	3.6%	1.5%
NE @ BAL	57.7%	NE	98.3%	100.0%	97.0%	-3.0%	1.5%
MIA @ BUF	41.9%	NE	98.3%	97.1%	100.0%	2.9%	1.5%
RAI @ SD	81.5%	PHI	55.5%	52.6%	56.1%	3.5%	1.4%
RAI @ SD	81.5%	DAL	44.5%	47.4%	43.9%	-3.5%	1.4%
RAI @ SD	81.5%	BAL	55.5%	58.0%	55.0%	-3.0%	1.2%
MIN @ CIN	77.7%	DET	24.0%	26.1%	23.4%	-2.7%	1.1%
NE @ BAL	57.7%	PHI	55.5%	54.2%	56.4%	2.2%	1.1%
NE @ BAL	57.7%	DAL	44.5%	45.8%	43.6%	-2.2%	1.1%
NO @ CAR	60.5%	NO	98.8%	100.0%	98.0%	-2.0%	1.0%
MIN @ CIN	77.7%	NE	98.3%	100.0%	97.8%	-2.2%	0.9%
TB @ STL	64.8%	DET	24.0%	25.2%	23.4%	-1.9%	0.9%
RAI @ SD	81.5%	SD	1.4%	0.0%	1.7%	1.7%	0.7%
ATL @ SF	86.2%	NO	98.8%	100.0%	98.6%	-1.4%	0.5%
NYG @ DET	79.4%	SD	1.4%	2.0%	1.2%	-0.7%	0.3%
TEN @ JAC	33.0%	NE	98.3%	98.1%	98.7%	0.6%	0.3%
TB @ STL	64.8%	SD	1.4%	1.8%	1.2%	-0.6%	0.3%