Saturday, December 21, 2013

Playoff Implications - Week 16

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 16 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 16 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
CHI @ PHI 60.0%
MIA @ BUF 57.7%
NE @ BAL 44.6%
DAL @ WAS 34.7%
ARZ @ SEA 33.7%
ATL @ SF 30.5%
PIT @ GB 28.0%
NYG @ DET 24.8%
MIN @ CIN 23.3%
NO @ CAR 14.0%
RAI @ SD 4.5%
TB @ STL 1.2%
TEN @ JAC 0.3%
CLE @ NYJ 0.0%
DEN @ TEX 0.0%
IND @ KC 0.0%

This week's top leverage game features two teams each with about a 50/50 shot of winning their respective divisions (Chicago in the North and Philly in the East). The outcome of this game has significant implications for not only the Bears and Eagles, but for the Lions, Cowboys, and Packers as well. By my leverage metric, this game actually matters more to the Lions than it does to the Eagles (see dropdown below).

Beyond Week 16

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 5 week 17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
17 PHI @ DAL 74.8%
17 GB @ CHI 70.2%
17 NYJ @ MIA 46.6%
17 BAL @ CIN 46.5%
17 DET @ MIN 39.2%

As I had called out before week 10, a lot will be riding on the Dallas-Philly season finale (unless the Eagles win and the Cowboys lose in week 16).

Week 16 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 16. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:

home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
MIA @ BUF 41.9% MIA 56.9% 81.4% 22.9% -58.5% 28.9%
NE @ BAL 57.7% BAL 55.5% 30.8% 73.7% 42.9% 21.2%
MIA @ BUF 41.9% BAL 55.5% 38.5% 79.1% 40.6% 20.0%
CHI @ PHI 59.7% CHI 46.7% 68.4% 32.0% -36.4% 17.9%
DAL @ WAS 41.5% DAL 44.5% 59.1% 23.9% -35.2% 17.3%
DAL @ WAS 41.5% PHI 55.5% 40.9% 76.1% 35.2% 17.3%
ARZ @ SEA 81.8% ARZ 19.5% 55.2% 11.5% -43.6% 16.9%
ATL @ SF 86.2% SF 87.4% 49.3% 93.5% 44.3% 15.3%
NE @ BAL 57.7% MIA 56.9% 73.5% 44.7% -28.8% 14.2%
PIT @ GB 59.1% GB 29.3% 12.5% 41.0% 28.5% 14.0%
CHI @ PHI 59.7% DET 24.0% 7.9% 35.0% 27.1% 13.3%
ATL @ SF 86.2% ARZ 19.5% 51.9% 14.3% -37.6% 13.0%
ARZ @ SEA 81.8% SF 87.4% 61.4% 93.2% 31.8% 12.3%
NYG @ DET 79.4% DET 24.0% 0.0% 30.3% 30.3% 12.2%
CHI @ PHI 59.7% PHI 55.5% 40.7% 65.5% 24.7% 12.1%
CHI @ PHI 59.7% DAL 44.5% 59.3% 34.5% -24.7% 12.1%
MIN @ CIN 77.7% CIN 87.9% 68.6% 93.4% 24.8% 10.3%
PIT @ GB 59.1% DET 24.0% 36.3% 15.5% -20.7% 10.2%
NYG @ DET 79.4% CHI 46.7% 65.3% 41.8% -23.5% 9.5%
MIN @ CIN 77.7% MIA 56.9% 70.4% 53.0% -17.4% 7.3%
NO @ CAR 60.5% CAR 94.3% 85.6% 100.0% 14.4% 7.0%
NO @ CAR 60.5% ARZ 19.5% 26.8% 14.7% -12.1% 5.9%
MIA @ BUF 41.9% CIN 87.9% 83.0% 94.6% 11.6% 5.7%
CHI @ PHI 59.7% GB 29.3% 23.8% 33.1% 9.3% 4.6%
NE @ BAL 57.7% CIN 87.9% 92.4% 84.6% -7.8% 3.9%
PIT @ GB 59.1% CHI 46.7% 51.3% 43.5% -7.8% 3.8%
NYG @ DET 79.4% GB 29.3% 34.7% 27.9% -6.8% 2.8%
ARZ @ SEA 81.8% NO 98.8% 93.2% 100.0% 6.8% 2.6%
MIN @ CIN 77.7% BAL 55.5% 59.6% 54.4% -5.2% 2.2%
ARZ @ SEA 81.8% CAR 94.3% 90.2% 95.2% 5.0% 1.9%
ATL @ SF 86.2% CAR 94.3% 98.8% 93.6% -5.2% 1.8%
MIA @ BUF 41.9% SD 1.4% 0.0% 3.3% 3.3% 1.6%
NE @ BAL 57.7% SD 1.4% 3.3% 0.0% -3.3% 1.6%
MIN @ CIN 77.7% CHI 46.7% 43.9% 47.5% 3.6% 1.5%
NE @ BAL 57.7% NE 98.3% 100.0% 97.0% -3.0% 1.5%
MIA @ BUF 41.9% NE 98.3% 97.1% 100.0% 2.9% 1.5%
RAI @ SD 81.5% PHI 55.5% 52.6% 56.1% 3.5% 1.4%
RAI @ SD 81.5% DAL 44.5% 47.4% 43.9% -3.5% 1.4%
RAI @ SD 81.5% BAL 55.5% 58.0% 55.0% -3.0% 1.2%
MIN @ CIN 77.7% DET 24.0% 26.1% 23.4% -2.7% 1.1%
NE @ BAL 57.7% PHI 55.5% 54.2% 56.4% 2.2% 1.1%
NE @ BAL 57.7% DAL 44.5% 45.8% 43.6% -2.2% 1.1%
NO @ CAR 60.5% NO 98.8% 100.0% 98.0% -2.0% 1.0%
MIN @ CIN 77.7% NE 98.3% 100.0% 97.8% -2.2% 0.9%
TB @ STL 64.8% DET 24.0% 25.2% 23.4% -1.9% 0.9%
RAI @ SD 81.5% SD 1.4% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7% 0.7%
ATL @ SF 86.2% NO 98.8% 100.0% 98.6% -1.4% 0.5%
NYG @ DET 79.4% SD 1.4% 2.0% 1.2% -0.7% 0.3%
TEN @ JAC 33.0% NE 98.3% 98.1% 98.7% 0.6% 0.3%
TB @ STL 64.8% SD 1.4% 1.8% 1.2% -0.6% 0.3%

3 comments:

  1. I thought that SF clinched a playoff spot with a win. Your table says they only have a 93.5% chance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think I'm not applying the three-way tiebreaker correctly. In the event that SF, ARZ, and CAR/NO end up in a three way tie, ARZ should be eliminated first because they lose the division tiebreaker with SF. I thought that's what I coded, but I'll need to double check.

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    2. Should be fixed tomorrow. It was literally an errant minus sign in my code. Thanks for calling this to my attention.

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