Saturday, December 7, 2013

Playoff Implications - Week 14

HereHere is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 14 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 14 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
DET @ PHI 49.6%
MIA @ PIT 39.7%
DAL @ CHI 39.2%
MIN @ BAL 33.2%
SEA @ SF 20.0%
TEN @ DEN 16.5%
STL @ ARZ 15.2%
ATL @ GB 13.4%
CAR @ NO 6.5%
RAI @ NYJ 3.8%
NYG @ SD 3.8%
IND @ CIN 2.9%
CLE @ NE 1.8%
BUF @ TB 0.3%
KC @ WAS 0.2%

Beyond Week 14

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 15-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
15 BAL @ DET 59.5%
17 PHI @ DAL 56.9%
16 CHI @ PHI 42.6%
15 GB @ DAL 41.0%
16 NE @ BAL 38.5%
17 SF @ ARZ 38.4%
17 BAL @ CIN 32.6%
15 NE @ MIA 30.8%
16 PIT @ GB 30.7%
15 ARZ @ TEN 28.1%

Week 14 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 14. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:


home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
MIA @ PIT 60.4% MIA 31.9% 56.7% 15.6% -41.0% 20.1%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% BAL 45.0% 20.1% 54.7% 34.5% 15.5%
DET @ PHI 58.8% PHI 55.1% 36.9% 67.8% 30.9% 15.2%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% DAL 52.9% 66.5% 41.1% -25.4% 12.7%
DET @ PHI 58.8% DAL 52.9% 66.2% 43.6% -22.6% 11.1%
SEA @ SF 59.2% SF 79.6% 66.6% 88.6% 22.0% 10.8%
DET @ PHI 58.8% DET 80.0% 92.0% 71.5% -20.5% 10.1%
MIA @ PIT 60.4% PIT 11.5% 0.4% 18.8% 18.3% 9.0%
TEN @ DEN 85.2% TEN 6.5% 26.6% 3.0% -23.6% 8.4%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% PHI 55.1% 46.5% 62.5% 16.1% 8.0%
STL @ ARZ 72.4% ARZ 17.6% 5.2% 22.3% 17.1% 7.6%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% MIA 31.9% 43.4% 27.4% -15.9% 7.1%
ATL @ GB 59.4% GB 11.6% 3.1% 17.4% 14.2% 7.0%
ATL @ GB 59.4% DET 80.0% 87.7% 74.7% -13.0% 6.4%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% CHI 9.2% 3.0% 14.7% 11.6% 5.8%
MIA @ PIT 60.4% BAL 45.0% 37.9% 49.7% 11.7% 5.7%
SEA @ SF 59.2% ARZ 17.6% 23.8% 13.3% -10.6% 5.2%
DET @ PHI 58.8% GB 11.6% 5.8% 15.7% 9.9% 4.9%
DET @ PHI 58.8% CHI 9.2% 3.6% 13.2% 9.7% 4.8%
STL @ ARZ 72.4% SF 79.6% 87.3% 76.7% -10.5% 4.7%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% DET 80.0% 84.8% 75.8% -9.0% 4.5%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% PIT 11.5% 17.6% 9.1% -8.4% 3.8%
TEN @ DEN 85.2% BAL 45.0% 36.1% 46.6% 10.4% 3.7%
CAR @ NO 60.4% CAR 95.4% 99.3% 92.8% -6.5% 3.2%
MIA @ PIT 60.4% TEN 6.5% 2.8% 8.9% 6.2% 3.0%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% SF 79.6% 77.0% 82.0% 5.0% 2.5%
NYG @ SD 60.2% SD 3.5% 0.6% 5.4% 4.8% 2.3%
RAI @ NYJ 59.1% NYJ 2.9% 0.3% 4.8% 4.5% 2.2%
SEA @ SF 59.2% PHI 55.1% 57.5% 53.4% -4.0% 2.0%
IND @ CIN 69.4% CIN 98.3% 95.5% 99.6% 4.1% 1.9%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% MIA 31.9% 29.9% 33.6% 3.7% 1.8%
TEN @ DEN 85.2% MIA 31.9% 27.5% 32.7% 5.1% 1.8%
CAR @ NO 60.4% NO 98.3% 96.1% 99.7% 3.6% 1.8%
TEN @ DEN 85.2% PIT 11.5% 7.9% 12.1% 4.2% 1.5%
CAR @ NO 60.4% ARZ 17.6% 15.7% 18.8% 3.0% 1.5%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% TEN 6.5% 8.8% 5.6% -3.2% 1.4%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% SF 79.6% 81.9% 78.8% -3.1% 1.4%
STL @ ARZ 72.4% CAR 95.4% 97.6% 94.6% -3.1% 1.4%
SEA @ SF 59.2% CAR 95.4% 97.0% 94.3% -2.7% 1.3%
DET @ PHI 58.8% SF 79.6% 81.2% 78.5% -2.7% 1.3%
DET @ PHI 58.8% ARZ 17.6% 19.1% 16.5% -2.6% 1.3%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% NYJ 2.9% 4.8% 2.2% -2.6% 1.2%
RAI @ NYJ 59.1% MIA 31.9% 33.3% 30.9% -2.4% 1.2%
NYG @ SD 60.2% BAL 45.0% 46.4% 44.1% -2.4% 1.2%
STL @ ARZ 72.4% MIA 31.9% 33.7% 31.2% -2.5% 1.1%
CLE @ NE 84.6% SF 79.6% 82.1% 79.2% -2.9% 1.0%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% ARZ 17.6% 15.9% 18.2% 2.3% 1.0%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% GB 11.6% 12.7% 10.7% -2.0% 1.0%
MIA @ PIT 60.4% SD 3.5% 2.3% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0%
IND @ CIN 69.4% PIT 11.5% 12.8% 10.9% -1.9% 0.9%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% CAR 95.4% 94.5% 96.2% 1.8% 0.9%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% SD 3.5% 4.9% 2.9% -1.9% 0.9%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% PIT 11.5% 12.2% 10.9% -1.4% 0.7%
TEN @ DEN 85.2% SD 3.5% 1.8% 3.7% 1.9% 0.7%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% CIN 98.3% 99.4% 97.9% -1.5% 0.7%
SEA @ SF 59.2% NO 98.3% 99.1% 97.8% -1.3% 0.7%
MIA @ PIT 60.4% CIN 98.3% 97.5% 98.8% 1.3% 0.6%
DET @ PHI 58.8% NO 98.3% 98.9% 97.9% -1.1% 0.5%
DET @ PHI 58.8% CAR 95.4% 96.0% 95.0% -0.9% 0.5%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% NO 98.3% 97.8% 98.7% 0.9% 0.5%
RAI @ NYJ 59.1% RAI 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% -0.9% 0.4%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% NYJ 2.9% 3.4% 2.5% -0.9% 0.4%
CLE @ NE 84.6% NYJ 2.9% 3.8% 2.8% -1.0% 0.4%
TEN @ DEN 85.2% NYJ 2.9% 2.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4%
STL @ ARZ 72.4% NYJ 2.9% 2.4% 3.2% 0.8% 0.3%
BUF @ TB 59.5% BUF 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% -0.7% 0.3%
NYG @ SD 60.2% NYG 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% -0.6% 0.3%
CLE @ NE 84.6% NE 99.9% 99.3% 100.0% 0.7% 0.3%
KC @ WAS 39.9% KC 99.8% 100.0% 99.5% -0.5% 0.2%
CLE @ NE 84.6% CLE 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 0.2%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% NYG 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
MIA @ PIT 60.4% BUF 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% BUF 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
TEN @ DEN 85.2% IND 100.0% 99.7% 100.0% 0.3% 0.1%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% CLE 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.1%
IND @ CIN 69.4% BUF 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
DAL @ CHI 53.5% KC 99.8% 99.9% 99.7% -0.2% 0.1%
MIN @ BAL 72.0% KC 99.8% 100.0% 99.8% -0.2% 0.1%
MIA @ PIT 60.4% NE 99.9% 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 0.1%
STL @ ARZ 72.4% STL 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.1%
CAR @ NO 60.4% STL 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%
MIA @ PIT 60.4% STL 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%

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