Playoff Leverage - Week 9
Earlier this week, I added playoff seed projections to my daily NFL rankings, which are based on simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. In addition to projecting playoff seeds, I can take the same simulation dataset and use it to see which games have the biggest impact on the playoff picture.
You can find a similar feature at Advanced NFL Stats, which highlights the high leverage game of the week (it's GB-CHI according to their model). This post attempts to take a more detailed view, looking at how each particular game affects all teams, not just the two participants.
You can find a similar feature at Advanced NFL Stats, which highlights the high leverage game of the week (it's GB-CHI according to their model). This post attempts to take a more detailed view, looking at how each particular game affects all teams, not just the two participants.
A Big Week for Baltimore
My playoff simulations indicate that the defending champion Ravens have a 29% chance of making it to the playoffs at this point. This week's matchup against the Browns will have a big impact on those chances. If the Ravens lose, their playoff hopes drop to 16%. And if they win, they increase to 39%. That swing, coupled with the fact that the game is fairly evenly matched (Baltimore has a 56% chance of winning at Cleveland), makes this the highest leverage situation of Week 9.
Note that high leverage doesn't just mean a big potential swing in outcome. If I buy a lottery ticket, there is a big difference between me winning and losing. But since the probability of winning is so small, the leverage is small as well. This article from Tom Tango explains the concept (fyi - I am using the recipe #2 version of the leverage calculation).
All Eyes on Cleveland
The Ravens-Browns game also has the highest total leverage of any Week 9 game. The Ravens, Browns, Dolphins, Bengals, and Titans all could see their playoff fortunes change as a result of this game. Here is a ranking of each game by total leverage (where I am just summing the playoff leverage as it applies to each team):
| Game | Leverage |
|---|---|
| BAL @ CLE | 27.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 24.8% |
| SD @ WAS | 24.7% |
| CHI @ GB | 19.8% |
| MIN @ DAL | 19.7% |
| TEN @ STL | 18.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 17.2% |
| PHI @ RAI | 16.8% |
| NO @ NYJ | 16.3% |
| PIT @ NE | 15.8% |
| KC @ BUF | 11.5% |
| TB @ SEA | 7.7% |
All Teams and All Games
The table below allows you to filter by game or team to see which matchups have the highest leverage. Are you a Colts fan? Then select "IND" from the team dropdown and get a rooting interest for each game this week. You probably didn't need to be told that the Colts winning and the Titans losing are both good things for Indy, but did you know that a Steelers victory over the Patriots improves the Colts' playoff chances by 0.7%? Although when the numbers get that small, it's hard to say when the leverage is just noise from the simulation. And it's not like you have to convince a Colts fan to root against the Pats.
Anyway, here is the table. Happy filtering. See the bottom of the post for an explanation of the table columns.
| Select Game: | <-or-> | Select Team: |
| home team: | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| game | game prob | team | playoff prob | loses | wins | swing | leverage |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | BAL | 29.7% | 39.1% | 16.6% | -22.5% | 11.1% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | CAR | 35.8% | 19.1% | 41.5% | 22.4% | 9.8% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | SD | 21.5% | 28.7% | 13.5% | -15.2% | 7.6% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | TEN | 21.3% | 27.2% | 12.2% | -15.1% | 7.4% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | DAL | 72.5% | 57.9% | 76.0% | 18.1% | 7.1% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | CHI | 11.8% | 25.5% | 8.7% | -16.8% | 6.5% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | GB | 89.3% | 76.2% | 92.2% | 16.0% | 6.2% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | PHI | 18.2% | 25.1% | 13.6% | -11.5% | 5.6% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | NE | 90.0% | 81.1% | 93.5% | 12.4% | 5.6% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | IND | 92.7% | 96.6% | 87.0% | -9.6% | 4.7% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | TEX | 5.6% | 2.0% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | NYJ | 5.9% | 3.4% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | BUF | 5.6% | 2.5% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 3.9% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | WAS | 8.1% | 4.7% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 3.6% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | BAL | 29.7% | 26.5% | 33.3% | 6.8% | 3.4% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | DAL | 72.5% | 68.5% | 75.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | PHI | 18.2% | 24.4% | 16.7% | -7.7% | 3.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | CLE | 3.8% | 1.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | WAS | 8.1% | 13.6% | 6.8% | -6.8% | 2.7% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | DAL | 72.5% | 74.9% | 69.9% | -5.0% | 2.5% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | CIN | 88.2% | 86.2% | 91.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | DET | 62.3% | 66.2% | 60.9% | -5.3% | 2.3% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | NO | 94.3% | 95.8% | 90.8% | -5.0% | 2.3% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | KC | 97.8% | 99.5% | 95.1% | -4.4% | 2.1% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | MIA | 33.5% | 31.9% | 35.7% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | PIT | 2.4% | 5.3% | 1.2% | -4.1% | 1.9% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | MIA | 33.5% | 31.8% | 35.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | GB | 89.3% | 92.1% | 88.4% | -3.7% | 1.6% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | DET | 62.3% | 58.9% | 63.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | CHI | 11.8% | 14.4% | 10.8% | -3.6% | 1.6% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | MIA | 33.5% | 34.5% | 31.1% | -3.4% | 1.6% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | IND | 92.7% | 91.6% | 94.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | CAR | 35.8% | 34.9% | 37.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | NO | 94.3% | 96.5% | 93.5% | -3.0% | 1.3% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | RAI | 2.4% | 0.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | ARZ | 10.7% | 12.9% | 10.0% | -2.9% | 1.3% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | TEN | 21.3% | 20.3% | 22.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | MIA | 33.5% | 32.5% | 34.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | TEN | 21.3% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | TEN | 21.3% | 20.4% | 22.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | MIA | 33.5% | 35.1% | 32.9% | -2.2% | 1.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | TEN | 21.3% | 22.1% | 20.1% | -2.0% | 1.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | NYG | 3.2% | 5.2% | 2.8% | -2.4% | 1.0% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | BAL | 29.7% | 28.9% | 30.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | SD | 21.5% | 22.1% | 20.1% | -2.0% | 0.9% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | NYJ | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | -2.1% | 0.9% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | WAS | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | SF | 93.6% | 95.1% | 93.0% | -2.0% | 0.9% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | CAR | 35.8% | 37.6% | 35.4% | -2.2% | 0.9% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | TEN | 21.3% | 23.0% | 20.9% | -2.2% | 0.8% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | TEX | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | SD | 21.5% | 22.2% | 20.5% | -1.7% | 0.8% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | BUF | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | -1.8% | 0.8% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | CIN | 88.2% | 86.6% | 88.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | TEX | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | SD | 21.5% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | CIN | 88.2% | 87.6% | 89.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | BAL | 29.7% | 30.3% | 28.8% | -1.5% | 0.7% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | KC | 97.8% | 97.1% | 98.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | CAR | 35.8% | 34.8% | 36.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | NO | 94.3% | 93.5% | 94.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | MIA | 33.5% | 34.3% | 33.0% | -1.3% | 0.6% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | TEN | 21.3% | 20.2% | 21.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | SD | 21.5% | 21.0% | 22.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | TEN | 21.3% | 20.4% | 21.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | NYG | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | PHI | 18.2% | 17.3% | 18.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | PHI | 18.2% | 18.8% | 17.6% | -1.1% | 0.6% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | ARZ | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | PHI | 18.2% | 17.8% | 18.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | BAL | 29.7% | 30.6% | 29.4% | -1.2% | 0.5% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | DAL | 72.5% | 73.0% | 71.9% | -1.1% | 0.5% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | PHI | 18.2% | 18.6% | 17.6% | -1.1% | 0.5% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | DET | 62.3% | 61.5% | 62.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | CHI | 11.8% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | BAL | 29.7% | 29.3% | 30.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | NE | 90.0% | 90.4% | 89.3% | -1.0% | 0.5% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | CAR | 35.8% | 36.4% | 35.4% | -1.0% | 0.5% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | GB | 89.3% | 90.8% | 89.2% | -1.6% | 0.4% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | GB | 89.3% | 89.7% | 88.8% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | NYJ | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | CHI | 11.8% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | CLE | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | CHI | 11.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | DAL | 72.5% | 73.4% | 72.3% | -1.1% | 0.4% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | DET | 62.3% | 63.7% | 62.2% | -1.5% | 0.4% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | BUF | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | IND | 92.7% | 93.3% | 92.4% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | NYG | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | ATL | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | CHI | 11.8% | 12.4% | 11.5% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | CIN | 88.2% | 87.9% | 88.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | NO | 94.3% | 94.6% | 93.8% | -0.8% | 0.4% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | TEN | 21.3% | 22.1% | 21.1% | -1.0% | 0.4% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | BAL | 29.7% | 29.1% | 29.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | BUF | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | NO | 94.3% | 95.1% | 94.1% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | DET | 62.3% | 61.8% | 62.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | PHI | 18.2% | 17.9% | 18.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | BAL | 29.7% | 29.9% | 29.2% | -0.8% | 0.4% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | NE | 90.0% | 89.7% | 90.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | PHI | 18.2% | 18.0% | 18.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | SEA | 99.7% | 98.5% | 99.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | NYJ | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | ARZ | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.3% | -0.7% | 0.3% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | -0.7% | 0.3% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | WAS | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | -0.8% | 0.3% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | SF | 93.6% | 93.3% | 94.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | SD | 21.5% | 22.2% | 21.3% | -0.9% | 0.3% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | BAL | 29.7% | 30.4% | 29.5% | -0.9% | 0.3% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | CIN | 88.2% | 88.4% | 87.7% | -0.7% | 0.3% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | BUF | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | NO | 94.3% | 93.2% | 94.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | TEX | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | NYG | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | IND | 92.7% | 92.0% | 92.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | SD | 21.5% | 21.8% | 21.1% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | CAR | 35.8% | 36.4% | 35.7% | -0.8% | 0.3% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | TEX | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | CHI | 11.8% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | KC | 97.8% | 97.5% | 98.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | IND | 92.7% | 93.2% | 92.5% | -0.7% | 0.3% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | SD | 21.5% | 22.0% | 21.3% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | NE | 90.0% | 89.0% | 90.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | IND | 92.7% | 92.4% | 93.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | ARZ | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.4% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | BUF | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | TEX | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | CAR | 35.8% | 34.9% | 35.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | SD | 21.5% | 20.6% | 21.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | DET | 62.3% | 62.5% | 61.9% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | GB | 89.3% | 89.7% | 89.1% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | IND | 92.7% | 92.4% | 93.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | CLE | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | -0.5% | 0.3% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | BAL | 29.7% | 29.4% | 29.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | BAL | 29.7% | 30.2% | 29.6% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | NO | 94.3% | 94.5% | 94.0% | -0.5% | 0.3% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | DET | 62.3% | 62.1% | 62.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | BUF | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | -0.9% | 0.3% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | NO | 94.3% | 94.7% | 94.1% | -0.6% | 0.2% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | CIN | 88.2% | 88.5% | 88.0% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | TEN | 21.3% | 21.6% | 21.1% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | TEX | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | SF | 93.6% | 93.3% | 93.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | ARZ | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.6% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | ARZ | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | SF | 93.6% | 94.1% | 93.4% | -0.6% | 0.2% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | GB | 89.3% | 89.5% | 89.0% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | TEX | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | WAS | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | DAL | 72.5% | 72.7% | 72.3% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | CLE | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | CLE | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | BAL | 29.7% | 28.9% | 29.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | NO | 94.3% | 94.5% | 94.0% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | SF | 93.6% | 94.3% | 93.5% | -0.8% | 0.2% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | CLE | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | DAL | 72.5% | 72.4% | 72.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | CHI | 11.8% | 12.5% | 11.7% | -0.8% | 0.2% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | NYG | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | KC | 97.8% | 98.1% | 97.7% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | NE | 90.0% | 90.1% | 89.7% | -0.4% | 0.2% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | CLE | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | -0.4% | 0.2% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | NE | 90.0% | 89.8% | 90.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | SF | 93.6% | 93.4% | 93.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | CIN | 88.2% | 88.1% | 88.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | NYG | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | -0.4% | 0.2% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | PHI | 18.2% | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | CHI | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | TEN | 21.3% | 21.9% | 21.2% | -0.7% | 0.2% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | NE | 90.0% | 89.6% | 90.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | SF | 93.6% | 93.7% | 93.4% | -0.4% | 0.2% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | CIN | 88.2% | 88.6% | 88.1% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | KC | 97.8% | 97.7% | 98.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | DET | 62.3% | 62.4% | 62.1% | -0.4% | 0.2% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | CIN | 88.2% | 87.9% | 88.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | WAS | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | TEN | 21.3% | 21.2% | 21.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | MIA | 33.5% | 33.1% | 33.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | CAR | 35.8% | 36.0% | 35.6% | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | BUF | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | SF | 93.6% | 93.7% | 93.4% | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | TEX | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | NYJ | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | BUF | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | GB | 89.3% | 89.5% | 89.2% | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | DET | 62.3% | 62.2% | 62.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | NE | 90.0% | 90.1% | 89.8% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | NYJ | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | NYG | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | NO | 94.3% | 94.2% | 94.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | CLE | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | -0.4% | 0.1% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | NYG | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | NYJ | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | CIN | 88.2% | 88.1% | 88.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | DET | 62.3% | 62.4% | 62.1% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | DAL | 72.5% | 72.6% | 72.3% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | CAR | 35.8% | 35.7% | 36.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | TEX | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | NE | 90.0% | 90.0% | 89.7% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | MIA | 33.5% | 33.6% | 33.3% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | GB | 89.3% | 89.4% | 89.1% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | SF | 93.6% | 93.5% | 93.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | GB | 89.3% | 89.2% | 89.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | KC | 97.8% | 98.0% | 97.7% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | BUF | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | MIA | 33.5% | 33.9% | 33.5% | -0.4% | 0.1% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.6% | 99.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | -0.4% | 0.1% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | KC | 97.8% | 98.0% | 97.7% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | IND | 92.7% | 92.4% | 92.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | CHI | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | CIN | 88.2% | 88.4% | 88.2% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | CLE | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | TEX | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | NYJ | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | ARZ | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | DAL | 72.5% | 72.9% | 72.5% | -0.4% | 0.1% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | KC | 97.8% | 97.9% | 97.7% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | SF | 93.6% | 93.5% | 93.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | GB | 89.3% | 89.4% | 89.2% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | KC | 97.8% | 97.5% | 97.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.8% | 99.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | NE | 90.0% | 90.1% | 89.9% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.9% | 99.7% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | CHI | 11.8% | 11.9% | 11.7% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | SD | 21.5% | 21.4% | 21.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | WAS | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | CLE | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | SD | 21.5% | 21.3% | 21.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | ARZ | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | CIN | 88.2% | 88.5% | 88.2% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | CAR | 35.8% | 35.9% | 35.7% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | DEN | 99.7% | 100.0% | 99.7% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | MIA | 33.5% | 33.6% | 33.5% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | DET | 62.3% | 62.4% | 62.2% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | GB | 89.3% | 89.4% | 89.2% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | CLE | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | CAR | 35.8% | 35.7% | 35.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | WAS | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | STL | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | SF | 93.6% | 93.7% | 93.5% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | STL | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | KC | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.7% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | NYJ | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | DAL | 72.5% | 72.6% | 72.5% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | IND | 92.7% | 92.7% | 92.6% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | IND | 92.7% | 92.9% | 92.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.8% | 99.7% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.6% | 99.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | NO | 94.3% | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | DAL | 72.5% | 72.6% | 72.5% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | SD | 21.5% | 21.4% | 21.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | WAS | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | KC | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.7% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.8% | 99.6% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | CHI | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.8% | 99.7% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | WAS | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | NE | 90.0% | 90.0% | 89.9% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | GB | 89.3% | 89.2% | 89.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | MIA | 33.5% | 33.6% | 33.5% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | WAS | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | NE | 90.0% | 89.9% | 90.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | NYJ | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | NYJ | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | NYG | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | NO | 94.3% | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | BUF | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.8% | 99.7% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | NYG | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.7% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | ARZ | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | SF | 93.6% | 93.5% | 93.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | ARZ | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.8% | 99.7% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | NYG | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | STL | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | PHI | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | STL | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | IND | 92.7% | 92.6% | 92.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | STL | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | MIA | 33.5% | 33.5% | 33.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | STL | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | RAI | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | PHI | 18.2% | 18.3% | 18.2% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | IND | 92.7% | 92.7% | 92.6% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | STL | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | STL | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | STL | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | STL | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | TEX | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.7% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | ATL | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | PIT | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | CAR | 35.8% | 35.8% | 35.8% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | NYJ | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | STL | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | DET | 62.3% | 62.3% | 62.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | BUF | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | SEA | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.7% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | KC | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | NYG | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | CLE | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | STL | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | WAS | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | DAL | 72.5% | 72.5% | 72.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | ARZ | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | ARZ | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | -0.0% | 0.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | PHI | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | DEN | 99.7% | 99.7% | 99.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| KC @ BUF | 39.5% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ATL @ CAR | 74.5% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| BAL @ CLE | 41.6% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIN @ DAL | 80.8% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CHI @ GB | 81.8% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PIT @ NE | 71.5% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NO @ NYJ | 29.7% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PHI @ RAI | 59.8% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TB @ SEA | 91.7% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TEN @ STL | 39.4% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| IND @ TEX | 40.9% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | JAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | MIN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SD @ WAS | 47.3% | TB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- game prob - probability of home team winning
- team - the team whose playoff leverage is being measured
- playoff prob - probability of team making the playoffs (prior to this week's game)
- loses - the team's playoff chances if the home team in the game selected loses
- wins - the team's playoff chances if the home team in the game selected wins
- swing - the differential in playoff probability as a result of the game outcome
- leverage - the expected change in playoff probability as a result of the game
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