Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Playoff Implications - Week 13

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 13 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 13 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

GameLeverage
ARZ @ PHI 48.2%
GB @ DET 41.3%
PIT @ BAL 33.2%
TEN @ IND 24.2%
STL @ SF 23.0%
CHI @ MIN 22.8%
MIA @ NYJ 20.3%
CIN @ SD 20.2%
RAI @ DAL 18.0%
TB @ CAR 12.5%
JAC @ CLE 3.2%
NYG @ WAS 2.5%
NO @ SEA 0.8%
ATL @ BUF 0.8%
DEN @ KC 0.7%
NE @ TEX 0.3%

Beyond Week 13

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 13-17 games by total leverage.

WeekGameLeverage
17 PHI @ DAL 50.4%
14 DET @ PHI 48.9%
15 BAL @ DET 47.0%
17 SF @ ARZ 45.4%
15 ARZ @ TEN 43.8%
14 DAL @ CHI 40.5%
16 CHI @ PHI 40.0%
15 GB @ DAL 38.1%
16 PIT @ GB 35.6%
14 MIA @ PIT 34.6%


Week 13 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 12. You can filter by game or team below. As mentioned above, I have already weeded out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game: OR Select Team:


home team:
gamegame probteamplayoff probloseswinsswingleverage
GB @ DET 69.5% DET 64.9% 33.9% 78.4% 44.5% 20.5%
ARZ @ PHI 62.4% ARZ 29.9% 50.1% 17.8% -32.2% 15.6%
GB @ DET 69.5% GB 16.5% 38.6% 6.8% -31.7% 14.6%
PIT @ BAL 59.8% PIT 23.1% 41.0% 11.2% -29.8% 14.6%
ARZ @ PHI 62.4% PHI 43.3% 24.9% 54.4% 29.5% 14.3%
PIT @ BAL 59.8% BAL 22.5% 5.6% 33.8% 28.2% 13.8%
TEN @ IND 64.1% TEN 18.0% 34.8% 8.6% -26.2% 12.6%
STL @ SF 74.2% SF 67.2% 47.6% 74.1% 26.5% 11.6%
CIN @ SD 53.2% SD 15.2% 3.8% 25.3% 21.5% 10.7%
CHI @ MIN 49.6% CHI 21.8% 32.4% 11.1% -21.3% 10.7%
MIA @ NYJ 56.0% MIA 18.8% 30.9% 9.4% -21.5% 10.7%
ARZ @ PHI 62.4% DAL 64.5% 76.0% 57.5% -18.6% 9.0%
RAI @ DAL 79.7% DAL 64.5% 46.8% 68.9% 22.1% 8.9%
ARZ @ PHI 62.4% SF 67.2% 57.3% 73.2% 15.8% 7.7%
MIA @ NYJ 56.0% NYJ 10.8% 2.3% 17.5% 15.2% 7.6%
CIN @ SD 53.2% CIN 90.7% 98.2% 84.1% -14.1% 7.1%
RAI @ DAL 79.7% PHI 43.3% 56.6% 39.9% -16.7% 6.7%
TB @ CAR 77.2% CAR 92.6% 80.6% 96.1% 15.5% 6.5%
CHI @ MIN 49.6% DET 64.9% 58.7% 71.1% 12.4% 6.2%
GB @ DET 69.5% CHI 21.8% 29.9% 18.3% -11.6% 5.3%
STL @ SF 74.2% ARZ 29.9% 38.4% 27.0% -11.4% 5.0%
TEN @ IND 64.1% PIT 23.1% 18.9% 25.5% 6.6% 3.2%
CHI @ MIN 49.6% GB 16.5% 13.7% 19.4% 5.7% 2.9%
TEN @ IND 64.1% IND 97.8% 94.1% 100.0% 5.9% 2.8%
TB @ CAR 77.2% ARZ 29.9% 35.0% 28.5% -6.5% 2.7%
TEN @ IND 64.1% SD 15.2% 12.7% 16.7% 4.0% 1.9%
STL @ SF 74.2% CAR 92.6% 95.6% 91.6% -4.0% 1.8%
TEN @ IND 64.1% BAL 22.5% 20.1% 23.8% 3.7% 1.8%
TEN @ IND 64.1% NYJ 10.8% 8.6% 12.1% 3.5% 1.7%
TB @ CAR 77.2% PHI 43.3% 46.3% 42.4% -3.9% 1.6%
MIA @ NYJ 56.0% TEN 18.0% 16.3% 19.4% 3.1% 1.5%
STL @ SF 74.2% DAL 64.5% 67.0% 63.6% -3.4% 1.5%
ARZ @ PHI 62.4% CAR 92.6% 90.7% 93.7% 3.0% 1.5%
STL @ SF 74.2% CHI 21.8% 24.2% 21.0% -3.3% 1.4%
PIT @ BAL 59.8% SD 15.2% 13.6% 16.3% 2.7% 1.3%
CIN @ SD 53.2% NYJ 10.8% 12.2% 9.6% -2.6% 1.3%
JAC @ CLE 72.6% BAL 22.5% 24.5% 21.7% -2.8% 1.3%
PIT @ BAL 59.8% MIA 18.8% 20.4% 17.8% -2.6% 1.3%
CHI @ MIN 49.6% SF 67.2% 66.0% 68.5% 2.5% 1.2%
TB @ CAR 77.2% SF 67.2% 69.5% 66.6% -2.9% 1.2%
STL @ SF 74.2% PHI 43.3% 45.1% 42.6% -2.5% 1.1%
PIT @ BAL 59.8% NYJ 10.8% 9.5% 11.7% 2.2% 1.1%
PIT @ BAL 59.8% TEN 18.0% 19.3% 17.1% -2.1% 1.1%
NYG @ WAS 60.0% CHI 21.8% 20.5% 22.7% 2.1% 1.0%
NYG @ WAS 60.0% DET 64.9% 66.1% 64.0% -2.0% 1.0%
JAC @ CLE 72.6% CLE 1.8% 0.1% 2.4% 2.2% 1.0%
CHI @ MIN 49.6% TEN 18.0% 17.1% 18.9% 1.8% 0.9%
CIN @ SD 53.2% GB 16.5% 17.4% 15.7% -1.6% 0.8%
RAI @ DAL 79.7% TEN 18.0% 16.4% 18.4% 2.0% 0.8%
ATL @ BUF 62.6% BUF 1.2% 0.2% 1.8% 1.6% 0.8%
GB @ DET 69.5% MIA 18.8% 17.7% 19.3% 1.7% 0.8%
JAC @ CLE 72.6% NYJ 10.8% 9.6% 11.3% 1.7% 0.8%
NO @ SEA 70.0% NO 99.0% 100.0% 98.6% -1.4% 0.6%
CHI @ MIN 49.6% CAR 92.6% 92.0% 93.2% 1.2% 0.6%
RAI @ DAL 79.7% CAR 92.6% 93.7% 92.3% -1.4% 0.6%
DEN @ KC 37.8% CAR 92.6% 93.0% 91.9% -1.1% 0.5%
RAI @ DAL 79.7% RAI 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% -1.3% 0.5%
MIA @ NYJ 56.0% CLE 1.8% 1.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.5%
STL @ SF 74.2% STL 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% -0.9% 0.4%
TEN @ IND 64.1% CLE 1.8% 1.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3%
CHI @ MIN 49.6% IND 97.8% 98.2% 97.5% -0.7% 0.3%
TB @ CAR 77.2% CLE 1.8% 2.4% 1.6% -0.8% 0.3%
RAI @ DAL 79.7% IND 97.8% 98.4% 97.7% -0.7% 0.3%
NYG @ WAS 60.0% BUF 1.2% 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%
CIN @ SD 53.2% BUF 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% -0.6% 0.3%
STL @ SF 74.2% NO 99.0% 99.4% 98.8% -0.6% 0.3%
NYG @ WAS 60.0% NYG 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% -0.4% 0.2%
NE @ TEX 25.7% NE 99.8% 99.9% 99.5% -0.4% 0.2%
NO @ SEA 70.0% SEA 99.9% 99.6% 100.0% 0.4% 0.2%
RAI @ DAL 79.7% STL 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% -0.4% 0.2%
ARZ @ PHI 62.4% SEA 99.9% 99.7% 100.0% 0.3% 0.2%
JAC @ CLE 72.6% RAI 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% -0.3% 0.1%
NE @ TEX 25.7% RAI 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
RAI @ DAL 79.7% NYG 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% -0.3% 0.1%
PIT @ BAL 59.8% RAI 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
DEN @ KC 37.8% KC 99.9% 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 0.1%
MIA @ NYJ 56.0% NE 99.8% 99.7% 99.9% 0.2% 0.1%
GB @ DET 69.5% KC 99.9% 100.0% 99.8% -0.2% 0.1%
TB @ CAR 77.2% SEA 99.9% 100.0% 99.8% -0.2% 0.1%

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